{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2e111d84-8520-4320-a652-8cdbe1424e06", "symbol": "WJG", "name": "Watkin Jones Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.732, "architecture_energy": 59.239, "architecture_maturity": 75.915, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.67, "rotation_up": 27.42, "upward_expansion": 10.38, "deceleration": 54.68, "rotation_down": 59.38, "downward_expansion": 88.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.182147, 0.185178, 0.19827, 0.216475 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.18, "trend_reference": 0.241537, "distance_from_trend": -0.254772, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.336497, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.465078, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.292004, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.373913, "excess_performance": -0.425148, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.254772, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111889, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.465078, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074786, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.37292, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121418, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.373913, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.298016, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2705580, "relative_activity": 0.822117, "balance": 0.298016, "dry_up": 1.153673, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100201, "annualized_volatility": 0.359903, "from_high_reference": -0.487938, "from_low_reference": 0.028571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.241537, "fair_value_reference": 0.336497, "structural_low": 0.175, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.000481, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004338, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.462926, "worst_return": -0.549272, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.122333, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.111056, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.51, "worst_return": -0.471717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.154034, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.214961, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.148289, "worst_return": -0.541404, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.372859, "energy": 76.10496, "activity_lines": [ 0.188573, 0.196475, 0.214905, 0.233931 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.1876, "volume": 3286266, "typical_volume": 3601628.45, "trend": 0.252403, "fair_value": 0.342446, "relative_strength": -34.529622, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.65435, "energy": 60.156953, "activity_lines": [ 0.187707, 0.193429, 0.210217, 0.229539 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.184, "volume": 5964597, "typical_volume": 3528699.7, "trend": 0.248987, "fair_value": 0.340465, "relative_strength": -36.113853, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.055126, "energy": 61.064844, "activity_lines": [ 0.186133, 0.190473, 0.205931, 0.225126 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.18, "volume": 3230457, "typical_volume": 3341325.4, "trend": 0.245103, "fair_value": 0.338526, "relative_strength": -37.765261, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.377358, "energy": 61.388373, "activity_lines": [ 0.18392, 0.187416, 0.20184, 0.220675 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.18, "volume": 2705580, "typical_volume": 3290989.65, "trend": 0.241537, "fair_value": 0.336497, "relative_strength": -37.292004, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.731898, "energy": 59.238904, "activity_lines": [ 0.182147, 0.185178, 0.19827, 0.216475 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }