{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2e135941-c8d5-4268-82de-4b0544920ffe", "symbol": "MRNY", "name": "TIDAL TRUST II YIELDMAX MRNA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 48.669, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 0.476, "architecture_energy": 15.703, "architecture_maturity": 23.898, "architecture_confidence": 65.489, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.58, "rotation_up": 15.74, "upward_expansion": 22.38, "deceleration": 75.21, "rotation_down": 52.08, "downward_expansion": 30.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.876693, 15.633664, 15.432014, 15.375532 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.24, "trend_reference": 15.167364, "distance_from_trend": 0.004789, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.491294, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.256269, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.952649, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.151949, "excess_performance": 0.026324, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004789, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.140231, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.256269, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003112, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.059526, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125577, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.151949, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.885488, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 668960, "relative_activity": 0.739779, "balance": 0.885488, "dry_up": 0.936051, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.132338, "annualized_volatility": 0.538339, "from_high_reference": -0.247702, "from_low_reference": 0.787709 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.167364, "fair_value_reference": 20.491294, "structural_low": 12.046118, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.111319, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.105531, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.105125, "worst_return": -0.130824, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.216765, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.193069, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.550875, "worst_return": -0.117345, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.078687, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.177387, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.078687, "worst_return": -0.078687, "sufficient": 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"typical_volume": 975438.4, "trend": 14.801741, "fair_value": 20.617871, "relative_strength": 14.108183, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.120965, "energy": 57.727426, "activity_lines": [ 16.987945, 16.265218, 15.723075, 15.464527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.936822, "volume": 1054012, "typical_volume": 968587.95, "trend": 14.912808, "fair_value": 20.571474, "relative_strength": 2.12461, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.282725, "energy": 16.215768, "activity_lines": [ 15.926054, 15.955596, 15.567591, 15.408725 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.196536, "volume": 628121, "typical_volume": 938896.4, "trend": 15.038227, "fair_value": 20.527509, "relative_strength": 2.617966, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.825704, "energy": 14.728491, "activity_lines": [ 15.133067, 15.700716, 15.445938, 15.362514 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.24, "volume": 668960, "typical_volume": 904270.6, "trend": 15.167364, "fair_value": 20.491294, "relative_strength": 5.952649, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.475883, "energy": 15.703375, "activity_lines": [ 14.876693, 15.633664, 15.432014, 15.375532 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }