{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2e150436-851f-4767-94ee-fbadad013bf2", "symbol": "SPHB", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR II S&P 500 HIGH BETA ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.139, "architecture_energy": 23.385, "architecture_maturity": 68.927, "architecture_confidence": 91.481, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.92, "rotation_up": 24.66, "upward_expansion": 55.07, "deceleration": 91.07, "rotation_down": 30.16, "downward_expansion": 18.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 143.578667, 145.38267, 143.959129, 139.153886 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 147.9, "trend_reference": 133.216682, "distance_from_trend": 0.110221, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 96.813872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.527674, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.738192, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.20483, "excess_performance": 0.079205, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.110221, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083779, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.527674, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031219, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.067382, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065232, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.20483, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.331539, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1755504, "relative_activity": 0.944547, "balance": 1.331539, "dry_up": 1.052702, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061458, "annualized_volatility": 0.244819, "from_high_reference": -0.06137, "from_low_reference": 0.482481 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 133.216682, "fair_value_reference": 96.813872, "structural_low": 110.59, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.005586, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": -0.015141, "regime_survival": 0.619048, "best_return": 0.157444, "worst_return": -0.171444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.028631, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.017684, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.27884, "worst_return": -0.176828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.108996, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.016712, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.32869, "worst_return": -0.217692, "sufficient": true }, { 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144.27, 146.410723, 142.698324, 137.625233 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 139.85, "volume": 1947478, "typical_volume": 1853583.75, "trend": 132.378879, "fair_value": 96.338083, "relative_strength": 4.824611, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.916101, "energy": 22.212274, "activity_lines": [ 142.228, 145.147087, 143.0018, 138.152523 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 147.9, "volume": 1755504, "typical_volume": 1858567.8, "trend": 133.216682, "fair_value": 96.813872, "relative_strength": 6.738192, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.139372, "energy": 23.385128, "activity_lines": [ 143.578667, 145.38267, 143.959129, 139.153886 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }