{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2e16bc8a-50ce-40f9-a8e9-e210e4c11e5f", "symbol": "CHM", "name": "Amundi STOXX Europe 600 Basic Materials UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.611, "architecture_energy": 37.811, "architecture_maturity": 25.561, "architecture_confidence": 57.045, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.45, "rotation_up": 47.72, "upward_expansion": 67.47, "deceleration": 68.84, "rotation_down": 23.42, "downward_expansion": 10.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 202.404003, 201.07671, 200.954491, 198.401037 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 209.100006, "trend_reference": 194.643001, "distance_from_trend": 0.074274, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 167.095605, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.251379, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.692438, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.118511, "excess_performance": 0.065199, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074274, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067796, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.251379, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025457, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.086924, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086041, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.118511, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.800062, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 256, "relative_activity": 0.188208, "balance": 0.800062, "dry_up": 0.181959, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031653, "annualized_volatility": 0.201774, "from_high_reference": -0.010177, "from_low_reference": 0.395582 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 194.643001, "fair_value_reference": 167.095605, "structural_low": 168.768005, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.077926, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.025789, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.090646, "worst_return": 0.065206, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.083411, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.005257, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.083411, "worst_return": 0.083411, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": 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166.395983, "relative_strength": 8.543215, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.416855, "energy": 17.004097, "activity_lines": [ 197.775998, 199.62289, 199.381175, 196.816593 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 201.350006, "volume": 256, "typical_volume": 1402.2, "trend": 193.4706, "fair_value": 166.713747, "relative_strength": 7.613286, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.57324, "energy": 14.183835, "activity_lines": [ 198.950667, 199.621218, 199.841538, 197.392688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 209.100006, "volume": 256, "typical_volume": 1360.2, "trend": 194.643001, "fair_value": 167.095605, "relative_strength": 8.692438, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.611488, "energy": 37.810703, "activity_lines": [ 202.404003, 201.07671, 200.954491, 198.401037 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }