{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "2e18bd18-3690-4af0-b9e6-c6c475f1f356",
    "symbol": "TCHP",
    "name": "T ROWE PRICE EXCHANGE TRD FDS INC BLUE CHIP GROWTH ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 89.161,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 43.027,
    "architecture_energy": 18.662,
    "architecture_maturity": 32.63,
    "architecture_confidence": 76.596,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 41.33,
        "rotation_up": 33.34,
        "upward_expansion": 59.84,
        "deceleration": 83.67,
        "rotation_down": 30.97,
        "downward_expansion": 19.17
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        49.714667,
        49.580909,
        49.898429,
        49.250086
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 51.54,
    "trend_reference": 48.621333,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.060029,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 41.024315,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.256328,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -5.737291,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.084596,
    "excess_performance": -0.041029,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.060029,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.001036,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.256328,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.059709,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.057373,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.025524,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.084596,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.960008,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 573993,
      "relative_activity": 0.537033,
      "balance": 0.960008,
      "dry_up": 0.859368,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.040986,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.218366,
      "from_high_reference": -0.032294,
      "from_low_reference": 0.219737
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 48.621333,
      "fair_value_reference": 41.024315,
      "structural_low": 42.255,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": 0.022531,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": 0.007302,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.095933,
        "worst_return": -0.019134,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.076056,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": 0.001411,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.151283,
        "worst_return": -0.157009,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.124428,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.022962,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.248736,
        "worst_return": 0.061746,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.308563,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.079634,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.405776,
        "worst_return": 0.211351,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.038622,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.021137,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.118266,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.115643,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.068262,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.033261,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.004023,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-02-06",
        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.027146,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-02-20",
        "end": "2026-03-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.017611,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-03-13",
        "end": "2026-05-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.106623,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "return": -0.042625,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "color": "amber",
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        "return": 0.045648,
        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 1016675.45,
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        "fair_value": 38.962164,
        "relative_strength": -3.577801,
        "stage": 3,
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        "energy": 39.257488,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 1036632.15,
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        "fair_value": 39.132623,
        "relative_strength": -3.184861,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 39.486412,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 1060816.9,
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        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
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        "energy": 67.002757,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 1086256.15,
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        "stage": 3,
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        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 34.732848,
        "energy": 65.438491,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 1087523.0,
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        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 77.868107,
        "energy": 81.120955,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 992753.3,
        "trend": 48.624333,
        "fair_value": 39.778145,
        "relative_strength": -4.797604,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.593704,
        "energy": 52.140494,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 1076553.2,
        "trend": 48.648667,
        "fair_value": 39.920388,
        "relative_strength": -6.651741,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 1076390.05,
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        "fair_value": 40.069721,
        "relative_strength": -5.49839,
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        "energy": 31.91723,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 48.29,
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        "typical_volume": 1115862.4,
        "trend": 48.705667,
        "fair_value": 40.200554,
        "relative_strength": -7.550798,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 26.28546,
        "energy": 21.007118,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 49.29,
        "volume": 782649,
        "typical_volume": 1121170.0,
        "trend": 48.681667,
        "fair_value": 40.339977,
        "relative_strength": -7.448696,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 28.330778,
        "energy": 22.946411,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 50.53,
        "volume": 1253595,
        "typical_volume": 1145057.1,
        "trend": 48.715333,
        "fair_value": 40.481317,
        "relative_strength": -6.224458,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 34.17675,
        "energy": 21.118149,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 49.04,
        "volume": 1232385,
        "typical_volume": 1171932.5,
        "trend": 48.690667,
        "fair_value": 40.614526,
        "relative_strength": -7.35903,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 24.535835,
        "energy": 19.285634,
        "activity_lines": [
          49.496,
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          49.728667,
          49.087398
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 48.03,
        "volume": 711384,
        "typical_volume": 1168475.75,
        "trend": 48.606333,
        "fair_value": 40.738097,
        "relative_strength": -8.510467,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 0.125819,
        "energy": 8.563995,
        "activity_lines": [
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          49.044774
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 48.83,
        "volume": 1156290,
        "typical_volume": 1197269.05,
        "trend": 48.581333,
        "fair_value": 40.871431,
        "relative_strength": -7.763085,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 8.31879,
        "energy": 10.714872,
        "activity_lines": [
          48.916,
          49.256727,
          49.658333,
          49.059204
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 51.54,
        "volume": 573993,
        "typical_volume": 1068823.55,
        "trend": 48.621333,
        "fair_value": 41.024315,
        "relative_strength": -5.737291,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 43.027492,
        "energy": 18.661668,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}