{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2e18d399-8caa-4b15-8dbd-7534a436a574", "symbol": "LBAY", "name": "TIDAL ETF TRUST LEATHERBACK L/S ALTERNATIVE YIELD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 48.014, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 19.998, "architecture_energy": 25.5, "architecture_maturity": 14.465, "architecture_confidence": 57.783, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.05, "rotation_up": 59.24, "upward_expansion": 39.83, "deceleration": 39.16, "rotation_down": 17.25, "downward_expansion": 17.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.245654, 25.93881, 25.841247, 26.044819 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 26.4752, "trend_reference": 26.211065, "distance_from_trend": 0.010077, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.483819, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.081335, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.891291, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.008361, "excess_performance": -0.133986, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010077, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024345, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.081335, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023977, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068913, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010545, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.008361, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.767332, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11107, "relative_activity": 1.0788, "balance": 1.767332, "dry_up": 1.002749, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029442, "annualized_volatility": 0.19507, "from_high_reference": -0.076338, "from_low_reference": 0.155344 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.211065, "fair_value_reference": 24.483819, "structural_low": 24.201265, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.007479, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.010759, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.102052, "worst_return": -0.048934, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.023846, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.064322, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.097767, "worst_return": -0.082308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.033519, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.076493, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.071522, "worst_return": -0.090851, 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.427388, "energy": 10.979251, "activity_lines": [ 25.554928, 25.476864, 25.734017, 25.97957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.438711, "volume": 21197, "typical_volume": 10519.6, "trend": 26.054691, "fair_value": 24.456908, "relative_strength": -3.025578, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.904137, "energy": 15.789767, "activity_lines": [ 25.891235, 25.648145, 25.771529, 26.009695 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.26, "volume": 8692, "typical_volume": 10116.65, "trend": 26.136094, "fair_value": 24.469752, "relative_strength": -4.56525, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.872495, "energy": 16.691696, "activity_lines": [ 26.052078, 25.778792, 25.795097, 26.022941 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.4752, "volume": 11107, "typical_volume": 10295.7, "trend": 26.211065, "fair_value": 24.483819, "relative_strength": -6.891291, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.998038, "energy": 25.499635, "activity_lines": [ 26.245654, 25.93881, 25.841247, 26.044819 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }