{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2e19f2f2-3e3f-45e0-bc1e-be58a26545b5", "symbol": "FTSD", "name": "FRANKLIN ETF TR SHORT DURATION U S GOVERNMENT ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.959, "architecture_energy": 13.6, "architecture_maturity": 28.129, "architecture_confidence": 71.809, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.28, "rotation_up": 36.03, "upward_expansion": 58.61, "deceleration": 80.07, "rotation_down": 23.53, "downward_expansion": 15.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 89.887435, 89.893121, 89.87453, 89.8561 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 90.015, "trend_reference": 89.810948, "distance_from_trend": 0.002272, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 85.034987, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.058564, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.223478, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.003268, "excess_performance": -0.122356, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002272, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003351, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.058564, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010905, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102235, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004027, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003268, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.132338, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 200498, "relative_activity": 1.725372, "balance": 1.132338, "dry_up": 1.272916, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005019, "annualized_volatility": 0.014393, "from_high_reference": -0.004264, "from_low_reference": 0.030436 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 89.810948, "fair_value_reference": 85.034987, "structural_low": 89.052712, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.000594, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.011466, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.005868, "worst_return": -0.002469, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.008143, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021952, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.01994, "worst_return": -0.003654, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.000358, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.059049, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.016603, "worst_return": -0.015887, 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 89.867597, "volume": 150457, "typical_volume": 119053.3, "trend": 89.758589, "fair_value": 84.812085, "relative_strength": -7.586072, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.212729, "energy": 17.805182, "activity_lines": [ 89.883516, 89.883283, 89.864906, 89.836135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 89.72314, "volume": 97150, "typical_volume": 116846.15, "trend": 89.772828, "fair_value": 84.886233, "relative_strength": -6.962074, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.029203, "energy": 11.561947, "activity_lines": [ 89.817221, 89.86226, 89.85324, 89.833848 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 89.892504, "volume": 143575, "typical_volume": 111921.55, "trend": 89.789765, "fair_value": 84.960131, "relative_strength": -7.503059, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.72384, "energy": 13.217228, "activity_lines": [ 89.821962, 89.869617, 89.858608, 89.841569 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 90.015, "volume": 200498, "typical_volume": 116205.65, "trend": 89.810948, "fair_value": 85.034987, "relative_strength": -10.223478, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.959229, "energy": 13.599577, "activity_lines": [ 89.887435, 89.893121, 89.87453, 89.8561 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }