{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2e23f5c0-062a-499a-adbc-fd622496d5a2", "symbol": "NATR", "name": "Natures Sunshine Products Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -87.517, "architecture_energy": 78.651, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.701, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.91, "rotation_up": 15.07, "upward_expansion": 16.3, "deceleration": 38.84, "rotation_down": 71.29, "downward_expansion": 89.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.055333, 19.846909, 21.061143, 22.148624 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.38, "trend_reference": 23.415, "distance_from_trend": -0.300448, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.460064, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.061859, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.469114, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.377896, "excess_performance": -0.56535, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.300448, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014645, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.061859, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.500613, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.324691, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.349409, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.377896, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.305128, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1343445, "relative_activity": 2.319369, "balance": 0.305128, "dry_up": 1.203962, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116689, "annualized_volatility": 0.419449, "from_high_reference": -0.41791, "from_low_reference": 0.262642 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.415, "fair_value_reference": 17.460064, "structural_low": 15.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.009956, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.018905, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.23779, "worst_return": -0.159121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.110242, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.014727, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.32343, "worst_return": -0.21316, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.037899, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.072573, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.316638, "worst_return": -0.371111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076499, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04304, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032922, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.181362, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.122517, 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"relative_strength": -12.469501, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.577739, "energy": 39.305999, "activity_lines": [ 21.069333, 21.023273, 22.496524, 23.260645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.43, "volume": 412657, "typical_volume": 570234.1, "trend": 23.661, "fair_value": 17.375, "relative_strength": -12.417459, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.528464, "energy": 37.71201, "activity_lines": [ 20.92, 20.851273, 22.199333, 23.048301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.4, "volume": 518033, "typical_volume": 571236.25, "trend": 23.620667, "fair_value": 17.415769, "relative_strength": -11.317788, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.65078, "energy": 37.484129, "activity_lines": [ 20.766, 20.742909, 21.93381, 22.837914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.15, "volume": 515341, "typical_volume": 549621.2, "trend": 23.593333, "fair_value": 17.457436, "relative_strength": -12.916036, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.693244, "energy": 43.144384, "activity_lines": [ 20.51, 20.622182, 21.666667, 22.614 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.38, "volume": 1343445, "typical_volume": 579228.55, "trend": 23.415, "fair_value": 17.460064, "relative_strength": -32.469114, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.517247, "energy": 78.650554, "activity_lines": [ 19.055333, 19.846909, 21.061143, 22.148624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }