{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2e25c522-fc66-4ba2-a883-22906d6dbd9d", "symbol": "MTSI", "name": "MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.656, "architecture_energy": 29.163, "architecture_maturity": 49.831, "architecture_confidence": 51.354, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.18, "rotation_up": 14.32, "upward_expansion": 16.12, "deceleration": 67.57, "rotation_down": 60.77, "downward_expansion": 41.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 280.271333, 301.765636, 319.530095, 306.000301 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 310.82, "trend_reference": 284.833333, "distance_from_trend": 0.091235, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 146.756058, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.117936, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 22.002728, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.31776, "excess_performance": 0.130306, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.091235, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.210641, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.117936, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.777092, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.220027, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.488527, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.31776, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.582257, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9646804, "relative_activity": 1.317902, "balance": 0.582257, "dry_up": 1.063188, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.167345, "annualized_volatility": 0.658922, "from_high_reference": -0.258009, "from_low_reference": 1.630501 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 284.833333, "fair_value_reference": 146.756058, "structural_low": 197.63, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.075898, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.049565, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.391635, "worst_return": -0.073481, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.188801, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.064445, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.637598, "worst_return": -0.151964, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.18851, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.112297, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.983589, "worst_return": -0.045139, "sufficient": false }, { 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"close": 267.36, "volume": 7255264, "typical_volume": 7083080.5, "trend": 274.686167, "fair_value": 142.836827, "relative_strength": 12.080996, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.786132, "energy": 18.689816, "activity_lines": [ 311.162, 336.063818, 328.209286, 306.225452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 266.99, "volume": 5370827, "typical_volume": 7013062.65, "trend": 277.752167, "fair_value": 144.106571, "relative_strength": 12.816817, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.506337, "energy": 24.737666, "activity_lines": [ 289.576667, 320.785273, 324.660667, 305.728925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 251.44, "volume": 8856497, "typical_volume": 7130808.65, "trend": 280.3015, "fair_value": 145.240353, "relative_strength": 4.974075, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.546628, "energy": 37.063969, "activity_lines": [ 271.102667, 304.654182, 319.347857, 304.031366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 310.82, "volume": 9646804, "typical_volume": 7319820.0, "trend": 284.833333, "fair_value": 146.756058, "relative_strength": 22.002728, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.655563, "energy": 29.162545, "activity_lines": [ 280.271333, 301.765636, 319.530095, 306.000301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }