{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2e376ae5-777b-4ead-981f-1c71c7b25986", "symbol": "IYE", "name": "ISHARES TRUST U.S. ENERGY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.705, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.869, "architecture_energy": 41.206, "architecture_maturity": 4.818, "architecture_confidence": 62.643, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.63, "rotation_up": 65.7, "upward_expansion": 74.28, "deceleration": 59.61, "rotation_down": 11.45, "downward_expansion": 5.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 61.990667, 60.595635, 60.371092, 60.233264 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 61.23, "trend_reference": 59.230025, "distance_from_trend": 0.033766, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.434124, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.290843, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.570874, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.09993, "excess_performance": -0.025695, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033766, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076375, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.290843, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005465, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.015709, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034409, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.09993, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.972031, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4150709, "relative_activity": 0.660103, "balance": 0.972031, "dry_up": 0.599307, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047759, "annualized_volatility": 0.256901, "from_high_reference": -0.08226, "from_low_reference": 0.402812 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.230025, "fair_value_reference": 47.434124, "structural_low": 55.4148, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.00706, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014429, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.135707, "worst_return": -0.178119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.02753, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.013584, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.242603, "worst_return": -0.130078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.026337, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008686, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.330473, "worst_return": -0.128511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 6287976.2, "trend": 59.230025, "fair_value": 47.434124, "relative_strength": 1.570874, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.868748, "energy": 41.205748, "activity_lines": [ 61.990667, 60.595635, 60.371092, 60.233264 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }