{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2e3ec9e5-c4c9-4d10-8d5b-61011a497bab", "symbol": "NFN", "name": "NFON AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 29.208, "architecture_energy": 22.555, "architecture_maturity": 27.372, "architecture_confidence": 43.889, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.06, "rotation_up": 47.71, "upward_expansion": 48.48, "deceleration": 45.46, "rotation_down": 25.64, "downward_expansion": 9.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.719333, 3.679636, 3.544714, 3.515763 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.77, "trend_reference": 3.534, "distance_from_trend": 0.06678, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.515, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.31641, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.635808, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.033333, "excess_performance": -0.097973, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06678, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057013, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.31641, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.108976, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.186358, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.160733, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.033333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.973831, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2373, "relative_activity": 0.155107, "balance": 2.973831, "dry_up": 0.645201, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093654, "annualized_volatility": 0.310347, "from_high_reference": -0.465248, "from_low_reference": 0.256667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.534, "fair_value_reference": 5.515, "structural_low": 3.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.049587, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.042447, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.007092, "worst_return": -0.110145, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.094388, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.153722, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.016, "worst_return": -0.218085, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.181159, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.174189, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.092199, "worst_return": -0.255319, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"mixed", "direction": 42.415568, "energy": 49.135812, "activity_lines": [ 3.695333, 3.519091, 3.442714, 3.472796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.7, "volume": 25914, "typical_volume": 16335.75, "trend": 3.534333, "fair_value": 5.577115, "relative_strength": -18.89285, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.90432, "energy": 50.697509, "activity_lines": [ 3.733333, 3.570182, 3.46981, 3.483742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.8, "volume": 8869, "typical_volume": 16102.2, "trend": 3.542333, "fair_value": 5.558397, "relative_strength": -16.458805, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.406984, "energy": 56.805189, "activity_lines": [ 3.778, 3.632727, 3.505571, 3.500882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.54, "volume": 2328, "typical_volume": 15935.45, "trend": 3.537, "fair_value": 5.536218, "relative_strength": -22.605444, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.885899, "energy": 35.01463, "activity_lines": [ 3.710667, 3.638, 3.514857, 3.500731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.77, "volume": 2373, "typical_volume": 15299.1, "trend": 3.534, "fair_value": 5.515, "relative_strength": -18.635808, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.207886, "energy": 22.555399, "activity_lines": [ 3.719333, 3.679636, 3.544714, 3.515763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }