{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2e42f588-6ce6-47de-a37a-ebfbeb996610", "symbol": "NUC", "name": "Nuchev Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.448, "architecture_energy": 65.928, "architecture_maturity": 41.753, "architecture_confidence": 92.213, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.77, "rotation_up": 24.7, "upward_expansion": 13.76, "deceleration": 46.3, "rotation_down": 54.68, "downward_expansion": 84.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.084667, 0.087455, 0.1025, 0.111839 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.085, "trend_reference": 0.121333, "distance_from_trend": -0.299451, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.153814, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.447385, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.431949, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.37037, "excess_performance": -0.434076, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.299451, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130227, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.447385, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150088, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.384319, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158621, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.37037, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.126125, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.126125, "dry_up": 0.013036, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140271, "annualized_volatility": 1.101066, "from_high_reference": -0.575, "from_low_reference": 0.133333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.121333, "fair_value_reference": 0.153814, "structural_low": 0.075, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.037037, "positive_rate": 0.257143, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.064912, "regime_survival": 0.771429, "best_return": 0.777778, "worst_return": -0.254545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.012194, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.037943, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.84, "worst_return": -0.411765, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.144792, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.18234, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.372548, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060606, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.21875, "active": false }, { "regime": 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0.102091, 0.116643, 0.122161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.085, "volume": 2733, "typical_volume": 66432.1, "trend": 0.125667, "fair_value": 0.15625, "relative_strength": -37.506428, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.332709, "energy": 87.294257, "activity_lines": [ 0.085333, 0.097545, 0.11269, 0.119452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.085, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 60893.55, "trend": 0.124333, "fair_value": 0.155353, "relative_strength": -36.733184, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.485225, "energy": 86.653832, "activity_lines": [ 0.083667, 0.093545, 0.109095, 0.116828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.085, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 53688.65, "trend": 0.123, "fair_value": 0.154423, "relative_strength": -37.32976, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.182722, "energy": 73.549374, "activity_lines": [ 0.083667, 0.090182, 0.10569, 0.11429 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.085, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 52413.65, "trend": 0.121333, "fair_value": 0.153814, "relative_strength": -38.431949, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.447629, "energy": 65.928221, "activity_lines": [ 0.084667, 0.087455, 0.1025, 0.111839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }