{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2e43447d-3863-4092-ad56-eea985e166f1", "symbol": "LMND", "name": "Lemonade\u00a0Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.823, "architecture_energy": 31.215, "architecture_maturity": 22.323, "architecture_confidence": 68.361, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.85, "rotation_up": 13.5, "upward_expansion": 12.73, "deceleration": 56.42, "rotation_down": 60.23, "downward_expansion": 67.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.215333, 59.538727, 59.194952, 59.65314 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 52.94, "trend_reference": 62.299333, "distance_from_trend": -0.150232, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 37.164679, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.424471, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.189557, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.287099, "excess_performance": -0.412724, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.150232, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080425, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.424471, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.203859, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.251896, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100463, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.287099, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.967246, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7083236, "relative_activity": 0.909905, "balance": 0.967246, "dry_up": 1.048339, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.171962, "annualized_volatility": 0.818761, "from_high_reference": -0.47007, "from_low_reference": 0.14688 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.299333, "fair_value_reference": 37.164679, "structural_low": 46.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.027901, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": -0.048635, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.791286, "worst_return": -0.285266, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.03757, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.093908, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.857964, "worst_return": -0.303922, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.414006, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.301254, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.980191, "worst_return": -0.469804, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.290371, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.045236, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.944043, "worst_return": -0.48902, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.120239, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.07821, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014794, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0413, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.25825, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.559019, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.095475, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.097191, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.101034, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.969708, "energy": 25.145309, "activity_lines": [ 65.523333, 63.181091, 61.006571, 61.333849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.31, "volume": 14618793, "typical_volume": 8207058.75, "trend": 63.189667, "fair_value": 36.922308, "relative_strength": -29.47243, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.532129, "energy": 19.859554, "activity_lines": [ 59.746, 60.864364, 59.864, 60.314409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.94, "volume": 7083236, "typical_volume": 7784587.85, "trend": 62.299333, "fair_value": 37.164679, "relative_strength": -25.189557, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.823465, "energy": 31.214677, "activity_lines": [ 56.215333, 59.538727, 59.194952, 59.65314 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }