{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2e47b3be-24c9-462e-82e0-8c6c01fb6ce6", "symbol": "NOU", "name": "Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.74, "architecture_energy": 74.688, "architecture_maturity": 62.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.882, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.35, "rotation_up": 16.55, "upward_expansion": 17.19, "deceleration": 39.91, "rotation_down": 64.0, "downward_expansion": 88.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.908667, 2.003636, 2.233095, 2.418215 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.96, "trend_reference": 2.705667, "distance_from_trend": -0.275594, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.860321, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.314762, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.503509, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.321799, "excess_performance": -0.442221, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.275594, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.180101, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.314762, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.244594, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.445035, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.232763, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.321799, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.193106, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1461700, "relative_activity": 0.841114, "balance": 1.193106, "dry_up": 0.750065, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.132261, "annualized_volatility": 0.689147, "from_high_reference": -0.753769, "from_low_reference": 0.101124 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.705667, "fair_value_reference": 2.860321, "structural_low": 1.78, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.036662, "positive_rate": 0.410256, "directional_follow_through": 0.589744, "median_excess_return": -0.019187, "regime_survival": 0.871795, "best_return": 0.393013, "worst_return": -0.282383, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.103139, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.098783, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.595, "worst_return": -0.314233, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.112599, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.074409, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.430493, "worst_return": -0.22028, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.321497, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.371831, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.114625, "worst_return": -0.361111, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-03-24", "end": "2023-04-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.098229, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-04-28", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.354898, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.122378, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.094595, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.247649, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061674, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.176991, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053957, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.548507, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.185393, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063091, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.30742, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.64, "volume": 262700, "typical_volume": 196120.0, "trend": 5.358, "fair_value": 8.413269, "relative_strength": -38.898406, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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"down", "direction": -78.229588, "energy": 73.31279, "activity_lines": [ 2.126, 2.200727, 2.429619, 2.606215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.8, "volume": 1726500, "typical_volume": 1835040.0, "trend": 2.830333, "fair_value": 2.887692, "relative_strength": -48.395473, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.098448, "energy": 74.848175, "activity_lines": [ 2.01, 2.109091, 2.353048, 2.535806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.82, "volume": 965400, "typical_volume": 1793785.0, "trend": 2.772333, "fair_value": 2.873526, "relative_strength": -47.21641, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.14069, "energy": 82.00549, "activity_lines": [ 1.929333, 2.035818, 2.283667, 2.470624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.96, "volume": 1461700, "typical_volume": 1737815.0, "trend": 2.705667, "fair_value": 2.860321, "relative_strength": -44.503509, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.739765, "energy": 74.688492, "activity_lines": [ 1.908667, 2.003636, 2.233095, 2.418215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }