{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2e507dc8-9ac5-4ced-af28-876e77d2f5b2", "symbol": "SHEN", "name": "Shenandoah Telecommunications Co", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 53.488, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.933, "architecture_energy": 60.358, "architecture_maturity": 11.878, "architecture_confidence": 64.849, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.79, "rotation_up": 17.51, "upward_expansion": 21.37, "deceleration": 44.08, "rotation_down": 67.3, "downward_expansion": 60.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.339333, 12.929455, 14.06981, 14.300688 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.48, "trend_reference": 14.166667, "distance_from_trend": -0.048471, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.120779, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.108512, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.444398, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.10311, "excess_performance": -0.084344, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.048471, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063883, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.108512, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148521, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.114444, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136972, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.10311, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.425087, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2639273, "relative_activity": 1.404031, "balance": 1.425087, "dry_up": 1.437227, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112382, "annualized_volatility": 0.470743, "from_high_reference": -0.222831, "from_low_reference": 0.394723 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.166667, "fair_value_reference": 15.120779, "structural_low": 11.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.018962, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.041257, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.168259, "worst_return": -0.104781, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.022018, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.034202, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.22293, "worst_return": -0.266966, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.053772, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.0488, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.112333, "worst_return": -0.004789, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0583, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058916, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.166946, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03655, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.210985, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.264789, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025679, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.034717, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.177346, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.184534, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 22.374468, "volume": 687244, "typical_volume": 532293.45, "trend": 19.224344, "fair_value": 23.792309, "relative_strength": 2.206242, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 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14.08, "fair_value": 15.223765, "relative_strength": -21.350855, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.272198, "energy": 71.592632, "activity_lines": [ 12.22, 13.431455, 14.463286, 14.475699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.99, "volume": 3533455, "typical_volume": 1824128.5, "trend": 14.102667, "fair_value": 15.176915, "relative_strength": -17.402478, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.998761, "energy": 70.296257, "activity_lines": [ 11.916, 13.009636, 14.18919, 14.34086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.48, "volume": 2639273, "typical_volume": 1879783.0, "trend": 14.166667, "fair_value": 15.120779, "relative_strength": -11.444398, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.932823, "energy": 60.357992, "activity_lines": [ 12.339333, 12.929455, 14.06981, 14.300688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }