{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2e545092-abf4-43e8-8732-4098c61eb88c", "symbol": "IRD", "name": "Opus Genetics, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -32.233, "architecture_energy": 52.883, "architecture_maturity": 14.165, "architecture_confidence": 51.707, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.67, "rotation_up": 19.62, "upward_expansion": 19.54, "deceleration": 44.71, "rotation_down": 59.31, "downward_expansion": 56.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.522667, 3.682, 4.035238, 4.166753 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.66, "trend_reference": 4.076, "distance_from_trend": -0.102061, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.246852, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.628946, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.97577, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.215947, "excess_performance": 0.028493, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.102061, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.165793, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.628946, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.585212, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.039758, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.732084, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.215947, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.392189, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4917879, "relative_activity": 1.124964, "balance": 0.392189, "dry_up": 1.055815, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.161974, "annualized_volatility": 0.740461, "from_high_reference": -0.370052, "from_low_reference": 2.519231 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.076, "fair_value_reference": 2.246852, "structural_low": 2.82, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-09-16", "end": "2022-11-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.238532, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2022-11-18", "end": "2023-06-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.431227, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-06-09", "end": "2023-07-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.101064, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-07-21", "end": "2023-09-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.178922, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.597734, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11646, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.091026, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.186526, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.121495, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.678261, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.219048, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.077922, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.232394, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.188312, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.02, "volume": 676879, "typical_volume": 1485155.15, "trend": 4.1655, "fair_value": 4.522494, "relative_strength": -0.900422, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.620723, "energy": 13.69904, "activity_lines": [ 4.075333, 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4.046667, 4.126545, 4.436143, 4.301032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.27, "volume": 4151277, "typical_volume": 4575550.05, "trend": 3.93, "fair_value": 2.25839, "relative_strength": 0.181048, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.370778, "energy": 40.279888, "activity_lines": [ 3.786, 3.944727, 4.311619, 4.261183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.08, "volume": 5280002, "typical_volume": 4525683.75, "trend": 3.965333, "fair_value": 2.252365, "relative_strength": -5.046673, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.318123, "energy": 60.123048, "activity_lines": [ 3.513333, 3.759636, 4.173238, 4.206344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.71, "volume": 4113188, "typical_volume": 4375297.75, "trend": 4.018333, "fair_value": 2.250442, "relative_strength": 12.178927, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.952225, "energy": 55.290967, "activity_lines": [ 3.516667, 3.720364, 4.103476, 4.189871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.66, "volume": 4917879, "typical_volume": 4371586.0, "trend": 4.076, "fair_value": 2.246852, "relative_strength": 3.97577, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.232575, "energy": 52.88254, "activity_lines": [ 3.522667, 3.682, 4.035238, 4.166753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }