{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2e558296-ce1d-4ab7-9abe-9a7bf9495729", "symbol": "NVD", "name": "GRANITESHARES 2X SHORT NVDA DAILY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.348, "architecture_energy": 55.249, "architecture_maturity": 52.332, "architecture_confidence": 90.871, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.2, "rotation_up": 19.27, "upward_expansion": 8.76, "deceleration": 44.3, "rotation_down": 60.11, "downward_expansion": 82.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.580667, 4.817818, 4.965524, 5.396237 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.97, "trend_reference": 5.943833, "distance_from_trend": -0.332081, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 90.408543, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.956088, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -49.768217, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.432046, "excess_performance": -0.619499, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.332081, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125965, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.956088, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004745, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.497682, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051512, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.432046, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.866115, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 335093708, "relative_activity": 0.943449, "balance": 0.866115, "dry_up": 1.1306, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.19833, "annualized_volatility": 0.719557, "from_high_reference": -0.610089, "from_low_reference": 0.010178 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.943833, "fair_value_reference": 90.408543, "structural_low": 3.93, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.056528, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.056757, "regime_survival": 0.928571, "best_return": 0.118871, "worst_return": -0.313802, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.227204, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.333127, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.088115, "worst_return": -0.475832, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.464485, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.654041, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.40695, "worst_return": -0.522019, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.77, "volume": 455860870, "typical_volume": 365007095.95, "trend": 6.1205, "fair_value": 91.531792, "relative_strength": -38.224383, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.653413, "energy": 37.07839, "activity_lines": [ 4.956667, 5.011636, 5.17481, 5.603634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.99, "volume": 442156353, "typical_volume": 361009613.45, "trend": 6.054167, "fair_value": 90.969832, "relative_strength": -34.678131, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.979649, "energy": 36.85582, "activity_lines": [ 4.916, 5.01, 5.113452, 5.530699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.97, "volume": 335093708, "typical_volume": 355179292.5, "trend": 5.943833, "fair_value": 90.408543, "relative_strength": -49.768217, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.347567, "energy": 55.248881, "activity_lines": [ 4.580667, 4.817818, 4.965524, 5.396237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }