{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2e5b9ba8-351f-4ca4-86b6-1b9738d528c1", "symbol": "002129", "name": "TCL Zhonghuan Renewable Energy Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.84, "architecture_energy": 28.814, "architecture_maturity": 27.517, "architecture_confidence": 51.933, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.09, "rotation_up": 19.22, "upward_expansion": 10.86, "deceleration": 62.63, "rotation_down": 62.76, "downward_expansion": 47.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.948, 9.473455, 9.511952, 9.501978 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.9, "trend_reference": 9.504, "distance_from_trend": -0.063552, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.024224, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.192687, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.710503, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.054198, "excess_performance": -0.061597, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.063552, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01774, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.192687, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105778, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067105, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104796, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.054198, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.350733, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 547710355, "relative_activity": 0.821705, "balance": 2.350733, "dry_up": 1.114618, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.136906, "annualized_volatility": 0.471407, "from_high_reference": -0.249578, "from_low_reference": 0.163399 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.504, "fair_value_reference": 11.024224, "structural_low": 8.1, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.030033, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.027936, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.167421, "worst_return": -0.158747, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.199698, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.092051, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.412486, "worst_return": -0.156841, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.000321, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.049293, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.170644, "worst_return": -0.293509, "sufficient": false }, { 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071006, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065502, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.273381, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093023, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067734, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003476, 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"volume": 738537434, "typical_volume": 686729698.4, "trend": 9.492333, "fair_value": 11.279008, "relative_strength": -8.09531, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.214867, "energy": 10.868464, "activity_lines": [ 9.526, 9.826, 9.621429, 9.582968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.83, "volume": 502631991, "typical_volume": 672687623.05, "trend": 9.493, "fair_value": 11.146117, "relative_strength": -2.812545, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.661993, "energy": 17.444961, "activity_lines": [ 9.146667, 9.638545, 9.56019, 9.540237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.9, "volume": 547710355, "typical_volume": 666553753.95, "trend": 9.504, "fair_value": 11.024224, "relative_strength": -6.710503, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.840271, "energy": 28.814242, "activity_lines": [ 8.948, 9.473455, 9.511952, 9.501978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }