{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2e63e488-955d-4cf3-ac3f-76b328f55c88", "symbol": "WNDY", "name": "Global X Wind Energy UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.93, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.928, "architecture_energy": 86.926, "architecture_maturity": 8.638, "architecture_confidence": 87.192, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.29, "rotation_up": 8.6, "upward_expansion": 21.63, "deceleration": 37.15, "rotation_down": 77.53, "downward_expansion": 94.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.997267, 10.194473, 10.730171, 10.898323 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.054, "trend_reference": 10.963767, "distance_from_trend": -0.082979, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.103397, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.104423, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.013903, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.040099, "excess_performance": -0.210991, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.082979, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029533, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.104423, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.22435, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.150139, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.272018, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.040099, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.101075, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7, "relative_activity": 0.054902, "balance": 0.101075, "dry_up": 0.031373, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029686, "annualized_volatility": 0.250291, "from_high_reference": -0.180336, "from_low_reference": 0.240928 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.963767, "fair_value_reference": 9.103397, "structural_low": 9.899, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.003362, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.010297, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.124241, "worst_return": -0.103191, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.019317, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.071373, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.083646, "worst_return": -0.075588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.023739, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.135929, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.009721, "worst_return": -0.10678, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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10.735633, "fair_value": 9.117724, "relative_strength": 6.219188, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.737511, "energy": 47.182079, "activity_lines": [ 11.8224, 11.828218, 11.584448, 11.250828 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 10.64, "volume": 18, "typical_volume": 696.8, "trend": 10.7846, "fair_value": 9.115186, "relative_strength": -6.928748, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.955306, "energy": 21.139257, "activity_lines": [ 11.399867, 11.623855, 11.521267, 11.244658 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 10.616, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 685.05, "trend": 10.825967, "fair_value": 9.115186, "relative_strength": -9.472611, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": -23.570632, "energy": 40.297202, "activity_lines": [ 11.0664, 11.430945, 11.455876, 11.233781 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 10.278, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 599.75, "trend": 10.856067, "fair_value": 9.113468, "relative_strength": -9.622915, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.846078, "energy": 62.784868, "activity_lines": [ 10.729467, 11.189564, 11.358229, 11.198428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 10.598, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 599.75, "trend": 10.901933, "fair_value": 9.114186, "relative_strength": -9.52336, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.213958, "energy": 68.280563, "activity_lines": [ 10.599467, 11.028982, 11.29199, 11.181778 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.598, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 599.75, "trend": 10.9478, "fair_value": 9.113647, "relative_strength": -9.167668, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.292534, "energy": 73.520463, "activity_lines": [ 10.5392, 10.892255, 11.225162, 11.16217 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.899, "volume": 9, "typical_volume": 600.2, "trend": 10.956733, "fair_value": 9.109564, "relative_strength": -13.844336, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -63.864358, "energy": 85.600736, "activity_lines": [ 10.323533, 10.650836, 11.091171, 11.094505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.899, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 448.3, "trend": 10.965667, "fair_value": 9.10525, "relative_strength": -13.564294, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -58.704318, "energy": 83.377103, "activity_lines": [ 10.157267, 10.449364, 10.959919, 11.026265 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.899, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 181.3, "trend": 10.970433, "fair_value": 9.103128, "relative_strength": -13.990796, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.90315, "energy": 90.949397, "activity_lines": [ 10.0388, 10.290709, 10.833195, 10.957447 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.054, "volume": 7, "typical_volume": 127.5, "trend": 10.963767, "fair_value": 9.103397, "relative_strength": -15.013903, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.927922, "energy": 86.925981, "activity_lines": [ 9.997267, 10.194473, 10.730171, 10.898323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }