{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2e64999b-6a22-46b3-ad58-87ee87b23f34", "symbol": "000720", "name": "Shandong Xinneng Taishan Power Generation Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.241, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.607, "architecture_energy": 53.277, "architecture_maturity": 22.378, "architecture_confidence": 85.564, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.77, "rotation_up": 16.41, "upward_expansion": 8.33, "deceleration": 48.39, "rotation_down": 63.16, "downward_expansion": 81.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.416667, 3.510545, 4.053714, 4.22486 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.71, "trend_reference": 4.263, "distance_from_trend": -0.129721, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.599359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.030739, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.300379, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.016438, "excess_performance": 0.009039, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.129721, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016371, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.030739, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.51675, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.083004, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.310929, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.016438, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.579347, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 312032847, "relative_activity": 0.737649, "balance": 0.579347, "dry_up": 0.621069, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.149699, "annualized_volatility": 0.802572, "from_high_reference": -0.483287, "from_low_reference": 0.236667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.263, "fair_value_reference": 3.599359, "structural_low": 3.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.014906, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.049191, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.078556, "worst_return": -0.053073, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.057742, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.027071, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.011605, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.205171, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.136822, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.304598, "worst_return": 0.005803, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.213421, 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"modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.614489, "energy": 68.15893, "activity_lines": [ 3.622, 4.125091, 4.517571, 4.46071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.05, "volume": 164858297, "typical_volume": 430831773.85, "trend": 4.258667, "fair_value": 3.625192, "relative_strength": -22.63972, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -54.102856, "energy": 76.589129, "activity_lines": [ 3.386, 3.853818, 4.366524, 4.381247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.23, "volume": 345030609, "typical_volume": 437184327.2, "trend": 4.247, "fair_value": 3.615064, "relative_strength": -17.888494, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.993921, "energy": 72.415321, "activity_lines": [ 3.282667, 3.663273, 4.237, 4.314882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.39, "volume": 228950352, "typical_volume": 419135194.05, "trend": 4.248333, "fair_value": 3.606154, "relative_strength": -12.100726, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.555457, "energy": 65.487634, "activity_lines": [ 3.286667, 3.543273, 4.128286, 4.259591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.71, "volume": 312032847, "typical_volume": 423009708.4, "trend": 4.263, "fair_value": 3.599359, "relative_strength": -8.300379, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.606655, "energy": 53.276916, "activity_lines": [ 3.416667, 3.510545, 4.053714, 4.22486 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }