{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2e65b3bd-9754-4197-b417-f8683b8596ca", "symbol": "FTC", "name": "Filtronic plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 70.352, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.045, "architecture_energy": 28.866, "architecture_maturity": 29.124, "architecture_confidence": 45.962, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.39, "rotation_up": 16.58, "upward_expansion": 18.76, "deceleration": 55.87, "rotation_down": 59.12, "downward_expansion": 48.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 248.066667, 259.4, 288.280952, 275.941935 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 244.0, "trend_reference": 255.2, "distance_from_trend": -0.043887, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 114.523718, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.130563, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.237234, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.223058, "excess_performance": 0.171822, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.043887, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.209001, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.130563, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.073245, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.102372, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.061808, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.223058, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.826861, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12432158, "relative_activity": 0.910758, "balance": 0.826861, "dry_up": 0.731, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.2686, "annualized_volatility": 1.054704, "from_high_reference": -0.491667, "from_low_reference": 1.140351 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 255.2, "fair_value_reference": 114.523718, "structural_low": 141.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.084746, "positive_rate": 0.684211, "directional_follow_through": 0.684211, "median_excess_return": 0.060564, "regime_survival": 0.473684, "best_return": 0.582888, "worst_return": -0.106383, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.095238, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.101243, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.981928, "worst_return": -0.148148, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.552334, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.398255, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.576271, "worst_return": -0.095238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.00277, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.481928, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096639, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068493, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.211538, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", 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"regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.743755, "energy": 21.242377, "activity_lines": [ 272.066667, 306.872727, 300.028571, 276.189247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 250.0, "volume": 9069492, "typical_volume": 13102519.15, "trend": 247.4, "fair_value": 110.100962, "relative_strength": 18.542819, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.015714, "energy": 19.875351, "activity_lines": [ 259.266667, 291.672727, 297.692857, 276.578495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 259.0, "volume": 7701847, "typical_volume": 13185428.8, "trend": 250.783333, "fair_value": 111.652244, "relative_strength": 20.427103, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.719414, "energy": 18.100441, "activity_lines": [ 254.466667, 280.472727, 295.985714, 277.326882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 238.0, "volume": 10710088, "typical_volume": 13292494.7, "trend": 252.683333, "fair_value": 113.064103, "relative_strength": 8.68011, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.238525, "energy": 21.583544, "activity_lines": [ 250.533333, 268.109091, 291.957143, 276.502151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 244.0, "volume": 12432158, "typical_volume": 13650338.8, "trend": 255.2, "fair_value": 114.523718, "relative_strength": 10.237234, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.045404, "energy": 28.866109, "activity_lines": [ 248.066667, 259.4, 288.280952, 275.941935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }