{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2e661851-5f27-4b4a-b973-b86af89b51a8", "symbol": "002869", "name": "Shenzhen Genvict Technologies Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.448, "architecture_energy": 64.705, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.402, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 21.81, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.56, "rotation_down": 62.0, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.078667, 15.589273, 17.190762, 18.616193 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.83, "trend_reference": 20.423, "distance_from_trend": -0.224893, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.199823, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.317667, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.271008, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.317966, "excess_performance": -0.325366, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.224893, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120406, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.317667, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.211354, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.35271, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032807, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.317966, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.928049, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18411393, "relative_activity": 0.960155, "balance": 0.928049, "dry_up": 0.963521, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098984, "annualized_volatility": 0.421499, "from_high_reference": -0.528167, "from_low_reference": 0.203802 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.423, "fair_value_reference": 23.199823, "structural_low": 13.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.024052, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.008046, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.28875, "worst_return": -0.170174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.053655, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.052011, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.409375, "worst_return": -0.341373, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.062707, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.035193, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.612199, "worst_return": -0.426494, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-90.336474, "energy": 95.919311, "activity_lines": [ 15.54, 16.658545, 18.512429, 19.768387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.73, "volume": 15131259, "typical_volume": 20365391.2, "trend": 20.946667, "fair_value": 23.265577, "relative_strength": -43.138039, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.876196, "energy": 94.274236, "activity_lines": [ 14.732, 15.972909, 17.912048, 19.280538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.49, "volume": 26089601, "typical_volume": 20088087.2, "trend": 20.670667, "fair_value": 23.222139, "relative_strength": -34.189943, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.869194, "energy": 80.06136, "activity_lines": [ 14.818, 15.711818, 17.517333, 18.928495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.83, "volume": 18411393, "typical_volume": 19175447.15, "trend": 20.423, "fair_value": 23.199823, "relative_strength": -35.271008, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.447891, "energy": 64.705431, "activity_lines": [ 15.078667, 15.589273, 17.190762, 18.616193 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }