{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2e6c7a22-dc04-4275-9f1d-9df439f5c1c2", "symbol": "FLGT", "name": "Fulgent Genetics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 75.319, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 6.197, "architecture_energy": 11.108, "architecture_maturity": 44.399, "architecture_confidence": 55.166, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.58, "rotation_up": 23.12, "upward_expansion": 24.4, "deceleration": 67.03, "rotation_down": 39.2, "downward_expansion": 31.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.785333, 19.213273, 18.478238, 18.143484 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 19.14, "trend_reference": 18.851667, "distance_from_trend": 0.015295, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.799872, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.122013, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.264867, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.183447, "excess_performance": -0.370901, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015295, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130699, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.122013, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.195828, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.222649, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.164454, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.183447, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.139904, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1900209, "relative_activity": 0.889804, "balance": 1.139904, "dry_up": 0.767636, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094244, "annualized_volatility": 0.817163, "from_high_reference": -0.383376, "from_low_reference": 0.421991 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.851667, "fair_value_reference": 21.799872, "structural_low": 13.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.023837, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.009566, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.078094, "worst_return": -0.414885, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.196527, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.253983, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.168137, "worst_return": -0.342712, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.230916, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.280777, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.445252, "worst_return": -0.262118, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030964, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031853, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.129735, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.205232, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094177, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", 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18.952, 18.086, 17.159524, 18.259247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 20.85, "volume": 1038283, "typical_volume": 2711565.5, "trend": 20.146333, "fair_value": 22.39516, "relative_strength": -15.596187, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 21.071356, "energy": 38.529175, "activity_lines": [ 19.64, 18.728909, 17.511476, 18.28972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 20.55, "volume": 1178516, "typical_volume": 2733342.7, "trend": 19.926667, "fair_value": 22.278429, "relative_strength": -17.991851, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.612652, "energy": 55.500796, "activity_lines": [ 20.047333, 19.234727, 17.847143, 18.315763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.16, "volume": 1154766, "typical_volume": 2597447.85, "trend": 19.678333, "fair_value": 22.151186, "relative_strength": -15.925125, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.961226, "energy": 55.695658, "activity_lines": [ 20.231333, 19.552909, 18.15819, 18.330817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.67, "volume": 1206287, "typical_volume": 2372991.9, "trend": 19.443333, "fair_value": 22.029647, "relative_strength": -16.460517, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.064306, "energy": 42.979855, "activity_lines": [ 20.153333, 19.705636, 18.399571, 18.33028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.55, "volume": 2295999, "typical_volume": 2276246.25, "trend": 19.142, "fair_value": 21.886474, "relative_strength": -29.721462, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.742594, "energy": 10.28263, "activity_lines": [ 18.924, 19.218909, 18.31981, 18.143613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.14, "volume": 1900209, "typical_volume": 2135537.3, "trend": 18.851667, "fair_value": 21.799872, "relative_strength": -22.264867, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.197481, "energy": 11.10804, "activity_lines": [ 18.785333, 19.213273, 18.478238, 18.143484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }