{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2e75231c-08e4-4a35-9a5f-c0c0d5d729c3", "symbol": "300302", "name": "Toyou Feiji Electronics Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 85.851, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.416, "architecture_energy": 34.591, "architecture_maturity": 46.881, "architecture_confidence": 47.29, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.02, "rotation_up": 14.05, "upward_expansion": 17.01, "deceleration": 71.3, "rotation_down": 64.13, "downward_expansion": 42.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.134, 35.906728, 38.500238, 35.376065 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 30.99, "trend_reference": 30.938333, "distance_from_trend": 0.00167, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.629039, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.757895, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 18.955249, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.365198, "excess_performance": 0.357798, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00167, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.288596, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.757895, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.578893, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.189552, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.353566, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.365198, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.425806, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 148565013, "relative_activity": 0.838644, "balance": 1.425806, "dry_up": 0.831824, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.29409, "annualized_volatility": 1.078212, "from_high_reference": -0.500161, "from_low_reference": 1.143154 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.938333, "fair_value_reference": 17.629039, "structural_low": 17.18, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.063506, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.075891, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.161273, "worst_return": -0.164842, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.10251, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.100318, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.749481, "worst_return": -0.092486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.028271, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.119226, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.739535, "worst_return": -0.178227, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.189733, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054619, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.099785, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.10175, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.213586, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"typical_volume": 183647456.9, "trend": 29.858, "fair_value": 17.361474, "relative_strength": 26.18668, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.974988, "energy": 18.601998, "activity_lines": [ 40.566667, 44.284182, 40.330667, 35.606516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.91, "volume": 162057892, "typical_volume": 186715094.1, "trend": 30.224, "fair_value": 17.453782, "relative_strength": 17.081725, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.075919, "energy": 21.20887, "activity_lines": [ 35.493333, 41.125455, 39.753952, 35.545355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.120001, "volume": 130071059, "typical_volume": 188071397.55, "trend": 30.51, "fair_value": 17.527436, "relative_strength": 10.667895, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -9.019575, "energy": 29.015774, "activity_lines": [ 31.289334, 37.925818, 38.960905, 35.345097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.99, "volume": 148565013, "typical_volume": 177149123.7, "trend": 30.938333, "fair_value": 17.629039, "relative_strength": 18.955249, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.415637, "energy": 34.590951, "activity_lines": [ 30.134, 35.906728, 38.500238, 35.376065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }