{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2e8cbefc-3841-4129-bf53-a1506b1d30fb", "symbol": "600283", "name": "Qian Jiang Water Resources Development Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.869, "architecture_energy": 49.393, "architecture_maturity": 59.08, "architecture_confidence": 82.89, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.41, "rotation_up": 21.56, "upward_expansion": 7.32, "deceleration": 58.56, "rotation_down": 51.17, "downward_expansion": 75.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.841333, 7.886988, 8.215737, 8.486183 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.88, "trend_reference": 8.821635, "distance_from_trend": -0.106742, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.03293, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.127636, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.204847, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.15812, "excess_performance": -0.114916, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.106742, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052659, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.127636, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134471, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.132048, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00549, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.15812, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.978507, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14353576, "relative_activity": 0.777795, "balance": 0.978507, "dry_up": 0.887811, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06098, "annualized_volatility": 0.24378, "from_high_reference": -0.214357, "from_low_reference": 0.052069 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.821635, "fair_value_reference": 9.03293, "structural_low": 7.49, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.012616, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.015206, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.117757, "worst_return": -0.160784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.011832, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.025733, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.268886, "worst_return": -0.163377, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.00523, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019762, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.275288, "worst_return": -0.026697, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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60.418534, "activity_lines": [ 7.939278, 8.076573, 8.463295, 8.699145 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.65, "volume": 12122040, "typical_volume": 20799044.5, "trend": 8.904302, "fair_value": 9.059851, "relative_strength": -14.114841, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.549968, "energy": 57.053782, "activity_lines": [ 7.847268, 7.963863, 8.357395, 8.615104 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.89, "volume": 10623729, "typical_volume": 19281700.5, "trend": 8.863968, "fair_value": 9.046768, "relative_strength": -11.254036, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.565045, "energy": 48.644767, "activity_lines": [ 7.851403, 7.91788, 8.283161, 8.549665 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.88, "volume": 14353576, "typical_volume": 18454185.5, "trend": 8.821635, "fair_value": 9.03293, "relative_strength": -13.204847, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.868695, "energy": 49.393019, "activity_lines": [ 7.841333, 7.886988, 8.215737, 8.486183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }