{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2e90d072-db26-45f9-bb6c-4fdfde5cb4b2", "symbol": "PGD", "name": "Peregrine Gold Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 29.832, "architecture_energy": 37.251, "architecture_maturity": 9.22, "architecture_confidence": 76.535, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.77, "rotation_up": 70.25, "upward_expansion": 42.67, "deceleration": 26.1, "rotation_down": 14.23, "downward_expansion": 22.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.171667, 0.151745, 0.141005, 0.14669 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.18, "trend_reference": 0.1651, "distance_from_trend": 0.090248, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.209843, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.142216, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.53536, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.142857, "excess_performance": -0.206563, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.090248, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.203057, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.142216, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.273557, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.185354, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.233781, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.142857, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.889325, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 337813, "relative_activity": 0.688727, "balance": 1.889325, "dry_up": 1.068478, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.184829, "annualized_volatility": 1.07578, "from_high_reference": -0.492958, "from_low_reference": 0.894737 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.1651, "fair_value_reference": 0.209843, "structural_low": 0.095, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.177005, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.21951, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.117647, "worst_return": -0.236364, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.150267, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.236647, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.117647, "worst_return": -0.418182, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.184492, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.05103, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.823529, "worst_return": -0.454545, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.157895, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.088235, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.266667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.513514, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.265306, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", 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"date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.11, "volume": 137287, "typical_volume": 508062.1, "trend": 0.1796, "fair_value": 0.21324, "relative_strength": -49.997052, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.709141, "energy": 63.238513, "activity_lines": [ 0.104733, 0.112655, 0.126981, 0.148411 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.16, "volume": 2122482, "typical_volume": 560013.4, "trend": 0.175933, "fair_value": 0.212407, "relative_strength": -26.726095, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.933826, "energy": 27.05056, "activity_lines": [ 0.1232, 0.119964, 0.128586, 0.147146 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.165, "volume": 1130670, "typical_volume": 582250.1, "trend": 0.173433, "fair_value": 0.211766, "relative_strength": -24.2172, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.653194, "energy": 15.141812, "activity_lines": [ 0.14, 0.127909, 0.130929, 0.146441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.155, "volume": 414652, "typical_volume": 525997.2, "trend": 0.1701, "fair_value": 0.211093, "relative_strength": -27.395831, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.286408, "energy": 18.159045, "activity_lines": [ 0.149, 0.1334, 0.132629, 0.145252 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.18, "volume": 213172, "typical_volume": 498187.35, "trend": 0.1676, "fair_value": 0.210484, "relative_strength": -16.837628, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 12.310286, "energy": 28.984026, "activity_lines": [ 0.163, 0.143164, 0.136852, 0.14589 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.18, "volume": 337813, "typical_volume": 490488.85, "trend": 0.1651, "fair_value": 0.209843, "relative_strength": -18.53536, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.831762, "energy": 37.251466, "activity_lines": [ 0.171667, 0.151745, 0.141005, 0.14669 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }