{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2e9bea14-729c-4092-90aa-453045cd263f", "symbol": "NDQ3L", "name": "SG ETN Daily Long +3X NASDAQ", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.354, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 19.716, "architecture_energy": 25.257, "architecture_maturity": 78.72, "architecture_confidence": 89.904, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.71, "rotation_up": 21.48, "upward_expansion": 49.07, "deceleration": 85.16, "rotation_down": 40.96, "downward_expansion": 29.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 80.238, 83.328727, 83.889548, 78.583559 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 86.279999, "trend_reference": 72.110167, "distance_from_trend": 0.196503, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.251181, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.751836, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.866579, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.516878, "excess_performance": 0.345986, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.196503, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.13106, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.751836, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190528, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.118666, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.215603, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.516878, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.687372, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1552, "relative_activity": 3.051814, "balance": 0.687372, "dry_up": 2.107462, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089717, "annualized_volatility": 0.607326, "from_high_reference": -0.126455, "from_low_reference": 0.897515 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 72.110167, "fair_value_reference": 49.251181, "structural_low": 45.470001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.115016, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.092971, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.254207, "worst_return": -0.009236, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.207471, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.212548, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.247384, "worst_return": -0.054719, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.51902, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.434307, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.630857, "worst_return": 0.407184, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.137275, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.036758, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079652, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.103546, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027823, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": 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93.309998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 526.4, "trend": 67.2635, "fair_value": 46.750348, "relative_strength": 27.147894, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.792229, "energy": 67.384354, "activity_lines": [ 93.419334, 89.479455, 77.767619, 72.505398 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 87.209999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 410.35, "trend": 68.1785, "fair_value": 47.137079, "relative_strength": 21.625522, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.144428, "energy": 63.887738, "activity_lines": [ 91.647333, 89.952546, 79.448214, 73.792269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 89.349998, "volume": 6, "typical_volume": 393.9, "trend": 68.9795, "fair_value": 47.543713, "relative_strength": 20.176498, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.242149, "energy": 54.194029, "activity_lines": [ 90.320666, 90.447818, 81.18819, 75.158172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 89.010002, "volume": 75, "typical_volume": 390.15, "trend": 69.913167, "fair_value": 47.931341, "relative_strength": 19.437856, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.45169, "energy": 49.887175, "activity_lines": [ 89.421333, 90.55, 82.733881, 76.450462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 79.120003, "volume": 2504, "typical_volume": 480.1, "trend": 70.5445, "fair_value": 48.256374, "relative_strength": 7.285641, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.189918, "energy": 31.249125, "activity_lines": [ 85.828001, 88.536183, 83.184715, 77.044452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 77.199997, "volume": 48, "typical_volume": 442.85, "trend": 71.0245, "fair_value": 48.564515, "relative_strength": 4.540504, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.772596, "energy": 28.396738, "activity_lines": [ 82.361333, 86.293818, 83.344929, 77.473839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 73.330002, "volume": 183, "typical_volume": 431.65, "trend": 71.384833, "fair_value": 48.859547, "relative_strength": -1.628454, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.547386, "energy": 22.784541, "activity_lines": [ 78.678667, 83.544364, 83.043238, 77.622581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 86.279999, "volume": 1552, "typical_volume": 508.55, "trend": 72.110167, "fair_value": 49.251181, "relative_strength": 11.866579, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.715754, "energy": 25.256849, "activity_lines": [ 80.238, 83.328727, 83.889548, 78.583559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }