{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2e9f75fa-2fa6-4670-aa24-42ec860c3290", "symbol": "EFXT", "name": "Enerflex Ltd.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 77.908, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -42.656, "architecture_energy": 53.291, "architecture_maturity": 47.792, "architecture_confidence": 81.947, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.73, "rotation_up": 14.7, "upward_expansion": 29.22, "deceleration": 50.66, "rotation_down": 70.56, "downward_expansion": 49.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.865333, 22.726909, 23.791387, 23.44574 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 19.96, "trend_reference": 22.403746, "distance_from_trend": -0.109078, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.308825, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.936205, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.150316, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.12231, "excess_performance": -0.003315, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.109078, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.150266, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.936205, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.127985, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.011503, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.746703, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.12231, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.469735, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3551159, "relative_activity": 1.324622, "balance": 0.469735, "dry_up": 1.069421, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104073, "annualized_volatility": 0.419755, "from_high_reference": -0.314501, "from_low_reference": 1.226237 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.403746, "fair_value_reference": 10.308825, "structural_low": 17.605201, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.030855, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.035979, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.038462, "worst_return": -0.154019, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.105991, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.160207, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.234936, "worst_return": -0.303207, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.013555, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.063913, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.147665, "worst_return": -0.072422, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"up", "direction": 26.795689, "energy": 19.353425, "activity_lines": [ 24.026667, 24.77447, 24.455566, 23.214724 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.86, "volume": 1950163, "typical_volume": 2889785.85, "trend": 21.488239, "fair_value": 9.928872, "relative_strength": 27.1833, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.190657, "energy": 13.795527, "activity_lines": [ 23.938, 24.475955, 24.479351, 23.385246 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.46, "volume": 1532921, "typical_volume": 2788261.0, "trend": 21.77184, "fair_value": 10.0316, "relative_strength": 25.190956, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.62781, "energy": 12.140594, "activity_lines": [ 23.735333, 24.164162, 24.443805, 23.512457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.76, "volume": 2436945, "typical_volume": 2707381.0, "trend": 22.024794, "fair_value": 10.126809, "relative_strength": 20.501897, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.071374, "energy": 12.156005, "activity_lines": [ 23.355333, 23.791273, 24.336274, 23.576209 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.28, "volume": 3946959, "typical_volume": 2695928.35, "trend": 22.237476, "fair_value": 10.220611, "relative_strength": 15.186312, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.378589, "energy": 15.223449, "activity_lines": [ 22.908, 23.423455, 24.177576, 23.592674 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.96, "volume": 3551159, "typical_volume": 2680884.95, "trend": 22.403746, "fair_value": 10.308825, "relative_strength": -1.150316, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.656307, "energy": 53.290791, "activity_lines": [ 21.865333, 22.726909, 23.791387, 23.44574 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }