{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2e9f9ba0-aabd-4522-a168-62c3d9d2fc65", "symbol": "HPRD", "name": "HSBC FTSE EPRA NAREIT Developed UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.062, "architecture_energy": 52.312, "architecture_maturity": 36.068, "architecture_confidence": 60.122, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.88, "rotation_up": 58.8, "upward_expansion": 78.47, "deceleration": 62.58, "rotation_down": 18.66, "downward_expansion": 7.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.486302, 21.391694, 21.087366, 20.827796 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.209999, "trend_reference": 20.480881, "distance_from_trend": 0.0356, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.626453, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.138703, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.025857, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.080661, "excess_performance": -0.090231, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0356, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040196, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.138703, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008234, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.080259, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029375, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.080661, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.3401, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28327, "relative_activity": 4.253942, "balance": 0.3401, "dry_up": 1.952545, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022684, "annualized_volatility": 0.140393, "from_high_reference": -0.043188, "from_low_reference": 0.15996 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.480881, "fair_value_reference": 18.626453, "structural_low": 19.027371, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.005034, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.005978, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.074243, "worst_return": -0.093401, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 9.1e-05, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011797, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.091468, "worst_return": -0.108896, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.020369, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.001701, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.090435, "worst_return": -0.087022, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.329095, "energy": 85.37107, "activity_lines": [ 21.601732, 21.328175, 20.957929, 20.704607 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.445, "volume": 12707, "typical_volume": 5436.1, "trend": 20.418106, "fair_value": 18.59702, "relative_strength": -4.453659, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.623938, "energy": 63.240274, "activity_lines": [ 21.580351, 21.38798, 21.036829, 20.776706 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.209999, "volume": 28327, "typical_volume": 6659.0, "trend": 20.480881, "fair_value": 18.626453, "relative_strength": -8.025857, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.062365, "energy": 52.311744, "activity_lines": [ 21.486302, 21.391694, 21.087366, 20.827796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }