{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2ea3c8ca-f730-4c42-afbc-9c226a68cbdb", "symbol": "EPRB", "name": "Eprcomunicazione S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.27, "architecture_energy": 47.996, "architecture_maturity": 39.189, "architecture_confidence": 75.061, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.77, "rotation_up": 13.44, "upward_expansion": 8.25, "deceleration": 41.56, "rotation_down": 66.9, "downward_expansion": 79.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.243333, 1.266909, 1.271929, 1.284247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.19, "trend_reference": 1.3075, "distance_from_trend": -0.089866, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.391841, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.145017, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.342302, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.105263, "excess_performance": -0.276155, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.089866, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020599, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.145017, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036567, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.243423, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053682, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.105263, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.193878, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14700, "relative_activity": 1.268882, "balance": 1.193878, "dry_up": 0.76284, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065288, "annualized_volatility": 0.452869, "from_high_reference": -0.327684, "from_low_reference": 0.072072 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.3075, "fair_value_reference": 1.391841, "structural_low": 1.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.037593, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.031579, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.42132, "worst_return": -0.066666, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.011858, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.075141, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.185567, "worst_return": -0.191667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.041667, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.055387, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.041667, "worst_return": -0.041667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 1.410306, "relative_strength": -16.271165, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.207489, "energy": 13.246412, "activity_lines": [ 1.288, 1.292364, 1.284024, 1.296634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.25, "volume": 2450, "typical_volume": 10955.0, "trend": 1.313833, "fair_value": 1.400829, "relative_strength": -18.558545, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.537359, "energy": 17.918184, "activity_lines": [ 1.276, 1.285545, 1.28081, 1.292237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.19, "volume": 14700, "typical_volume": 11585.0, "trend": 1.3075, "fair_value": 1.391841, "relative_strength": -24.342302, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.269935, "energy": 47.996129, "activity_lines": [ 1.243333, 1.266909, 1.271929, 1.284247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }