{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2eadf3b5-99a7-40e6-a896-702200eacb4a", "symbol": "4051", "name": "Baazeem Trading Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.692, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.726, "architecture_energy": 25.559, "architecture_maturity": 25.444, "architecture_confidence": 72.274, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.29, "rotation_up": 13.06, "upward_expansion": 11.11, "deceleration": 50.17, "rotation_down": 55.17, "downward_expansion": 70.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.536, 5.579636, 5.607404, 5.584198 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.53, "trend_reference": 5.631637, "distance_from_trend": -0.018048, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.964572, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.072859, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.874272, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.07619, "excess_performance": -0.04436, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018048, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039896, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.072859, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015378, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.038743, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018158, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.07619, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.503669, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2416832, "relative_activity": 0.976074, "balance": 1.503669, "dry_up": 0.738138, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047744, "annualized_volatility": 0.217675, "from_high_reference": -0.206304, "from_low_reference": 0.150049 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.631637, "fair_value_reference": 5.964572, "structural_low": 4.808489, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.008733, "regime_survival": 0.421053, "best_return": 0.144716, "worst_return": -0.149936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.067511, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.056491, "regime_survival": 0.1, "best_return": 0.153708, "worst_return": -0.222364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.098791, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.030192, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.027899, "worst_return": -0.418046, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025594, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022764, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095238, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.115057, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069579, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014173, 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"trend": 5.663522, "fair_value": 5.969948, "relative_strength": -1.763355, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.478147, "energy": 21.075406, "activity_lines": [ 5.568667, 5.596364, 5.610415, 5.592812 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.53, "volume": 2416832, "typical_volume": 2476073.95, "trend": 5.631637, "fair_value": 5.964572, "relative_strength": -3.874272, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.72563, "energy": 25.559447, "activity_lines": [ 5.536, 5.579636, 5.607404, 5.584198 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }