{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2eb206cc-617f-488d-a6fd-60444844bbf6", "symbol": "300324", "name": "Beijing Watertek Information Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.857, "architecture_energy": 58.696, "architecture_maturity": 84.031, "architecture_confidence": 88.675, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.77, "rotation_up": 23.4, "upward_expansion": 10.03, "deceleration": 59.65, "rotation_down": 55.66, "downward_expansion": 81.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.658, 3.717091, 4.037857, 4.331591 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.78, "trend_reference": 4.804, "distance_from_trend": -0.213156, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.981026, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.050496, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.27118, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.386364, "excess_performance": -0.393763, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.213156, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127814, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.050496, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.363334, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.322712, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098272, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.386364, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.083044, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 195347554, "relative_activity": 1.14998, "balance": 1.083044, "dry_up": 1.12525, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096866, "annualized_volatility": 0.484668, "from_high_reference": -0.547305, "from_low_reference": 0.155963 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.804, "fair_value_reference": 3.981026, "structural_low": 3.27, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.026083, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.017279, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.176667, "worst_return": -0.181287, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.095975, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.032536, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.789954, "worst_return": -0.308929, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.055728, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.017351, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.13242, "worst_return": -0.20073, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111821, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.187831, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.330065, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.141328, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016129, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.082005, "energy": 81.64209, "activity_lines": [ 3.878, 4.069091, 4.38481, 4.696258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.48, "volume": 221967032, "typical_volume": 185676060.1, "trend": 5.042333, "fair_value": 3.969038, "relative_strength": -36.533527, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.01347, "energy": 77.538956, "activity_lines": [ 3.746, 3.919091, 4.272286, 4.589505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.37, "volume": 155053813, "typical_volume": 179625731.1, "trend": 4.958, "fair_value": 3.970897, "relative_strength": -38.2904, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.479549, "energy": 70.47171, "activity_lines": [ 3.603333, 3.779091, 4.160571, 4.481613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.73, "volume": 192217973, "typical_volume": 172301794.65, "trend": 4.877333, "fair_value": 3.975385, "relative_strength": -30.133391, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.798457, "energy": 62.56531, "activity_lines": [ 3.622667, 3.732545, 4.092381, 4.402387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.78, "volume": 195347554, "typical_volume": 169870405.85, "trend": 4.804, "fair_value": 3.981026, "relative_strength": -32.27118, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.856926, "energy": 58.69608, "activity_lines": [ 3.658, 3.717091, 4.037857, 4.331591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }