{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2eb3461d-ffa3-43cd-a165-7bafdbc0f09d", "symbol": "6040", "name": "Tabuk Agricultural Development Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.953, "architecture_energy": 75.521, "architecture_maturity": 21.728, "architecture_confidence": 80.169, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.89, "rotation_up": 77.5, "upward_expansion": 92.49, "deceleration": 42.24, "rotation_down": 8.58, "downward_expansion": 16.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.472, 7.814182, 7.21281, 7.050022 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.7, "trend_reference": 6.979, "distance_from_trend": 0.246597, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.107692, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.336268, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.954561, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.22708, "excess_performance": 0.25891, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.246597, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046237, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.336268, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.198858, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.109546, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.36988, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.22708, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.278429, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15918140, "relative_activity": 4.966433, "balance": 1.278429, "dry_up": 2.454245, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116711, "annualized_volatility": 0.730292, "from_high_reference": -0.206928, "from_low_reference": 0.5 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.979, "fair_value_reference": 13.107692, "structural_low": 5.8, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.003155, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.011533, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.105263, "worst_return": -0.181256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.085562, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.127209, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.012035, "worst_return": -0.248649, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.17298, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.172009, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.064171, "worst_return": -0.239606, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095992, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.072019, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078563, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030624, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049887, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.037667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027415, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.472028, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.428177, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 18.02, "volume": 688709, "typical_volume": 522094.75, "trend": 18.018, "fair_value": 24.870281, "relative_strength": -1.422738, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.592148, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 7.24, "volume": 1737319, "typical_volume": 1774821.0, "trend": 6.872333, "fair_value": 13.313141, "relative_strength": -7.862331, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.352184, "energy": 34.862325, "activity_lines": [ 7.16, 6.815091, 6.676571, 6.719226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.73, "volume": 1394330, "typical_volume": 1827740.5, "trend": 6.84, "fair_value": 13.228718, "relative_strength": -14.13113, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.020375, "energy": 29.061692, "activity_lines": [ 7.073333, 6.843818, 6.684524, 6.710043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.34, "volume": 12415057, "typical_volume": 2434945.05, "trend": 6.930333, "fair_value": 13.170513, "relative_strength": 34.495824, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.802313, "energy": 86.440264, "activity_lines": [ 8.174667, 7.516, 7.035762, 6.935849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.7, "volume": 15918140, "typical_volume": 3205145.4, "trend": 6.979, "fair_value": 13.107692, "relative_strength": 10.954561, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.953025, "energy": 75.521048, "activity_lines": [ 8.472, 7.814182, 7.21281, 7.050022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }