{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2eb523b2-13fd-4b96-834a-e5c235aa4fc8", "symbol": "CAPE", "name": "Ossiam Shiller Barclays Cape Europe Sector Value TR UCITS ETF 1C EUR Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.446, "architecture_energy": 82.08, "architecture_maturity": 95.811, "architecture_confidence": 85.208, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.63, "rotation_up": 78.41, "upward_expansion": 96.68, "deceleration": 39.86, "rotation_down": 13.05, "downward_expansion": 18.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 673.179993, 665.54727, 657.599523, 647.380215 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 677.799988, "trend_reference": 631.903333, "distance_from_trend": 0.072632, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 534.52752, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.268036, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.562589, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.135724, "excess_performance": 0.082412, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.072632, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056171, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.268036, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036204, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.065626, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063632, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.135724, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.683424, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 493, "relative_activity": 0.67052, "balance": 2.683424, "dry_up": 0.612037, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02053, "annualized_volatility": 0.121532, "from_high_reference": -0.011521, "from_low_reference": 0.338996 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 631.903333, "fair_value_reference": 534.52752, "structural_low": 583.900024, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.007825, "positive_rate": 0.59375, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": 0.002134, "regime_survival": 0.71875, "best_return": 0.073863, "worst_return": -0.039271, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.029625, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.009961, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.095641, "worst_return": -0.063834, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.05713, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.034639, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.145361, "worst_return": -0.048991, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 533.198994, "relative_strength": 9.458759, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.77046, "energy": 72.632755, "activity_lines": [ 669.11333, 662.079999, 654.435239, 644.180861 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 677.799988, "volume": 493, "typical_volume": 735.25, "trend": 631.903333, "fair_value": 534.52752, "relative_strength": 6.562589, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.446026, "energy": 82.079896, "activity_lines": [ 673.179993, 665.54727, 657.599523, 647.380215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }