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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.114, "architecture_energy": 63.143, "architecture_maturity": 68.746, "architecture_confidence": 67.182, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.85, "rotation_up": 27.85, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 61.72, "rotation_down": 49.79, "downward_expansion": 70.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.01, 44.141636, 1137.193286, 1875.096012 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 45.72, "trend_reference": 2698.684796, "distance_from_trend": -0.983058, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2320.542032, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.980298, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.559411, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.987565, "excess_performance": -1.016465, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983058, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.291973, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.980298, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.805674, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.985594, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.037718, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.987565, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.145283, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13567, "relative_activity": 1.062982, "balance": 2.145283, "dry_up": 0.867243, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 9.152416, "annualized_volatility": 6.388694, "from_high_reference": -0.990293, "from_low_reference": 0.141858 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2698.684796, "fair_value_reference": 2320.542032, 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2437.880851 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.56, "volume": 22681, "typical_volume": 17637.25, "trend": 2951.08494, "fair_value": 2348.159165, "relative_strength": -98.648857, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.0763, "energy": 67.946422, "activity_lines": [ 43.420667, 278.057091, 1578.921756, 2241.967517 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.47, "volume": 2681, "typical_volume": 15982.15, "trend": 2826.6134, "fair_value": 2334.176978, "relative_strength": -98.58989, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.522301, "energy": 66.943569, "activity_lines": [ 44.322667, 121.908182, 1348.585952, 2054.508489 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.72, "volume": 13567, "typical_volume": 12763.15, "trend": 2698.684796, "fair_value": 2320.542032, "relative_strength": -98.559411, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.113829, "energy": 63.143351, "activity_lines": [ 45.01, 44.141636, 1137.193286, 1875.096012 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }