{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2ed243db-8e23-41cb-bc13-1cdeae4ce456", "symbol": "LPE", "name": "Laurent-Perrier S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 56.87, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.034, "architecture_energy": 16.114, "architecture_maturity": 32.21, "architecture_confidence": 74.775, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.96, "rotation_up": 26.84, "upward_expansion": 17.02, "deceleration": 39.64, "rotation_down": 35.71, "downward_expansion": 62.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 84.519411, 84.304116, 84.947002, 85.484332 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 86.0, "trend_reference": 86.565147, "distance_from_trend": -0.006529, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 101.343183, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.151398, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.764052, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.059081, "excess_performance": -0.112392, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006529, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029103, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.151398, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043761, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097641, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00391, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.059081, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 11.282563, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2499, "relative_activity": 0.256259, "balance": 11.282563, "dry_up": 0.494188, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040339, "annualized_volatility": 0.204344, "from_high_reference": -0.131313, "from_low_reference": 0.081761 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 86.565147, "fair_value_reference": 101.343183, "structural_low": 79.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.006458, "positive_rate": 0.392857, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.001486, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.07033, "worst_return": -0.107143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.002079, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.040585, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.093074, "worst_return": -0.133841, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.045569, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.110398, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.104658, "worst_return": -0.116518, "sufficient": true 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"2026-07-24", "close": 81.199997, "volume": 5124, "typical_volume": 9301.95, "trend": 86.905147, "fair_value": 101.792765, "relative_strength": -12.004518, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.99955, "energy": 68.508079, "activity_lines": [ 82.43088, 84.022459, 84.800854, 85.593384 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 86.0, "volume": 9359, "typical_volume": 9684.75, "trend": 86.785147, "fair_value": 101.558735, "relative_strength": -7.942397, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.527715, "energy": 30.736031, "activity_lines": [ 83.587891, 84.186924, 84.875357, 85.534987 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 86.0, "volume": 2499, "typical_volume": 9751.85, "trend": 86.565147, "fair_value": 101.343183, "relative_strength": -9.764052, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.033752, "energy": 16.114128, "activity_lines": [ 84.519411, 84.304116, 84.947002, 85.484332 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }