{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2ed2474e-3ed9-4cf8-a093-5d975c5f1064", "symbol": "RADX", "name": "Radiopharm Theranostics Limited American Depositary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.126, "architecture_energy": 80.87, "architecture_maturity": 38.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.034, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.0, "rotation_up": 8.85, "upward_expansion": 17.41, "deceleration": 37.11, "rotation_down": 74.81, "downward_expansion": 88.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.365333, 3.747636, 4.052048, 4.22686 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.8, "trend_reference": 4.465167, "distance_from_trend": -0.372924, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.006315, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.440706, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -50.35242, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.43662, "excess_performance": -0.624073, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.372924, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061551, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.440706, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.216089, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.503524, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166167, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.43662, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.217493, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 327589, "relative_activity": 0.514835, "balance": 0.217493, "dry_up": 1.118822, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.217892, "annualized_volatility": 0.542205, "from_high_reference": -0.827692, "from_low_reference": 0.068702 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.465167, "fair_value_reference": 5.006315, "structural_low": 2.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.167924, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.16966, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.023419, "worst_return": -0.359268, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.344262, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-06", "close": 18.9, "volume": 183110, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-13", "close": 5.63, "volume": 311859, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.579137, "energy": 30.47335, "activity_lines": [ 4.304, 4.348909, 4.411381, 4.523656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.43, "volume": 130312, "typical_volume": 534144.95, "trend": 4.6755, "fair_value": 5.071244, "relative_strength": -20.776196, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.112979, "energy": 24.161257, "activity_lines": [ 4.348667, 4.359455, 4.404452, 4.506183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.55, "volume": 1605398, "typical_volume": 598889.4, "trend": 4.6105, "fair_value": 5.053555, "relative_strength": -34.992748, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.689992, "energy": 37.132638, "activity_lines": [ 4.089333, 4.202182, 4.316381, 4.43357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.15, "volume": 784324, "typical_volume": 626135.9, "trend": 4.5435, "fair_value": 5.031675, "relative_strength": -41.916729, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.825801, "energy": 63.562705, "activity_lines": [ 3.756667, 3.993273, 4.197071, 4.339344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.8, "volume": 327589, "typical_volume": 636299.6, "trend": 4.465167, "fair_value": 5.006315, "relative_strength": -50.35242, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.125525, "energy": 80.870322, "activity_lines": [ 3.365333, 3.747636, 4.052048, 4.22686 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }