{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2ed4f093-ab87-42a4-8023-ea36477de119", "symbol": "ESG-F", "name": "Invesco S&P 500 ESG Index ETF (CAD Hedged)", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.127, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 92.362, "architecture_energy": 72.357, "architecture_maturity": 56.833, "architecture_confidence": 80.748, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.6, "rotation_up": 60.97, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 64.1, "rotation_down": 27.89, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.19, 48.904297, 48.40391, 47.521276 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 50.549999, "trend_reference": 46.584136, "distance_from_trend": 0.085133, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.764771, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.304019, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.841324, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.101903, "excess_performance": -0.018519, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085133, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030047, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.304019, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012812, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.008413, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002117, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.101903, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.679803, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7600, "relative_activity": 1.966365, "balance": 1.679803, "dry_up": 1.56533, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013655, "annualized_volatility": 0.12973, "from_high_reference": -0.000988, "from_low_reference": 0.22518 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.584136, "fair_value_reference": 38.764771, "structural_low": 41.419998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.014018, "positive_rate": 0.787879, "directional_follow_through": 0.787879, "median_excess_return": -0.005027, "regime_survival": 0.787879, "best_return": 0.055309, "worst_return": -0.094287, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.055745, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.011656, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.116097, "worst_return": -0.063244, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.102202, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.045672, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.171839, "worst_return": -0.114905, "sufficient": true }, { 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47.335173, 46.020745, 45.679489 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 48.044575, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 13060.0, "trend": 45.383183, "fair_value": 37.659827, "relative_strength": -1.575485, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.740215, "energy": 85.98073, "activity_lines": [ 48.365936, 47.677161, 46.261376, 45.861382 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 48.533604, "volume": 2300, "typical_volume": 13040.0, "trend": 45.529897, "fair_value": 37.783086, "relative_strength": -1.988358, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.700276, "energy": 79.126641, "activity_lines": [ 48.435798, 47.991145, 46.536397, 46.064635 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 48.912846, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 12710.0, "trend": 45.705509, "fair_value": 37.911324, "relative_strength": -1.244663, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", 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-1.972816, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.257271, "energy": 77.825098, "activity_lines": [ 48.656086, 48.569683, 47.542271, 46.817496 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.650002, "volume": 8900, "typical_volume": 4075.0, "trend": 46.210777, "fair_value": 38.397953, "relative_strength": -2.021324, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.544783, "energy": 74.72047, "activity_lines": [ 48.65939, 48.600219, 47.754326, 46.983361 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.880001, "volume": 4700, "typical_volume": 4030.0, "trend": 46.298214, "fair_value": 38.509768, "relative_strength": -3.665587, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.025014, "energy": 53.769825, "activity_lines": [ 48.398267, 48.478114, 47.876127, 47.091053 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.84, "volume": 3000, "typical_volume": 4020.0, "trend": 46.42332, "fair_value": 38.630293, "relative_strength": -1.189421, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.666012, "energy": 55.204811, "activity_lines": [ 48.526, 48.539171, 48.071399, 47.255039 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.549999, "volume": 7600, "typical_volume": 3865.0, "trend": 46.584136, "fair_value": 38.764771, "relative_strength": -0.841324, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.362353, "energy": 72.356833, "activity_lines": [ 49.19, 48.904297, 48.40391, 47.521276 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }