{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2edbe40f-916c-422e-a821-5650f45fb260", "symbol": "JEN", "name": "Jenoptik AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.577, "architecture_energy": 22.272, "architecture_maturity": 71.76, "architecture_confidence": 76.946, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.98, "rotation_up": 16.83, "upward_expansion": 46.55, "deceleration": 87.99, "rotation_down": 38.46, "downward_expansion": 26.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.758666, 40.738442, 40.873182, 38.272489 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 39.119999, "trend_reference": 34.482113, "distance_from_trend": 0.134501, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.814882, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.576473, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 31.055429, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.505793, "excess_performance": 0.441153, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.134501, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.282864, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.576473, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075415, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.310554, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.301853, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.505793, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.050545, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 555650, "relative_activity": 0.635486, "balance": 1.050545, "dry_up": 0.850831, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102255, "annualized_volatility": 0.451243, "from_high_reference": -0.166951, "from_low_reference": 1.461464 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.482113, "fair_value_reference": 24.814882, "structural_low": 23.661118, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.015645, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.020474, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.121807, "worst_return": -0.096024, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.022011, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.000633, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.097577, "worst_return": -0.225076, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.007527, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.044517, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.131096, "worst_return": -0.203667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"trend": 33.312045, "fair_value": 24.672527, "relative_strength": 41.617918, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.263891, "energy": 29.297271, "activity_lines": [ 40.708, 42.530403, 40.800342, 37.678701 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.28, "volume": 922742, "typical_volume": 956893.9, "trend": 33.884247, "fair_value": 24.731779, "relative_strength": 29.811352, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.220099, "energy": 27.627776, "activity_lines": [ 39.128, 41.405582, 40.775765, 37.934698 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.119999, "volume": 555650, "typical_volume": 874370.4, "trend": 34.482113, "fair_value": 24.814882, "relative_strength": 31.055429, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.576947, "energy": 22.272207, "activity_lines": [ 38.758666, 40.738442, 40.873182, 38.272489 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }