{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2edc0cda-d69c-4b3b-96ab-13b527cb8621", "symbol": "RXRX", "name": "Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.948, "architecture_energy": 37.736, "architecture_maturity": 17.578, "architecture_confidence": 81.516, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.87, "rotation_up": 16.5, "upward_expansion": 9.21, "deceleration": 39.89, "rotation_down": 58.44, "downward_expansion": 75.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.095333, 3.222545, 3.266286, 3.309161 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.22, "trend_reference": 3.461333, "distance_from_trend": -0.069723, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.36875, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.494406, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.202374, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.190955, "excess_performance": -0.378408, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069723, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097906, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.494406, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024763, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.312024, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082833, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.190955, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.292684, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 77908618, "relative_activity": 0.913037, "balance": 1.292684, "dry_up": 1.122376, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.157905, "annualized_volatility": 0.610091, "from_high_reference": -0.551532, "from_low_reference": 0.162455 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.461333, "fair_value_reference": 6.36875, "structural_low": 2.77, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.03003, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.066446, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.193483, "worst_return": -0.293515, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.177278, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.227289, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.069337, "worst_return": -0.247006, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.311161, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.373358, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.271186, "worst_return": -0.314607, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 3.56, "volume": 132728198, "typical_volume": 82141636.85, "trend": 3.636167, "fair_value": 6.615128, "relative_strength": -29.287117, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.187936, "energy": 13.048749, "activity_lines": [ 3.544667, 3.429364, 3.375071, 3.448656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.945, "volume": 129113180, "typical_volume": 83272759.6, "trend": 3.592333, "fair_value": 6.53484, "relative_strength": -37.895478, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.114232, "energy": 15.627501, "activity_lines": [ 3.375667, 3.357091, 3.335381, 3.404065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.96, "volume": 86247885, "typical_volume": 84131796.0, "trend": 3.549333, "fair_value": 6.469712, "relative_strength": -35.256586, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.097153, "energy": 23.872502, "activity_lines": [ 3.225333, 3.294364, 3.300571, 3.363269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.0, "volume": 89815767, "typical_volume": 85121274.4, "trend": 3.509333, "fair_value": 6.409455, "relative_strength": -33.606738, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.713977, "energy": 39.402732, "activity_lines": [ 3.106333, 3.238364, 3.271952, 3.327828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.22, "volume": 77908618, "typical_volume": 85329117.4, "trend": 3.461333, "fair_value": 6.36875, "relative_strength": -31.202374, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.948321, "energy": 37.736356, "activity_lines": [ 3.095333, 3.222545, 3.266286, 3.309161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }