{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2ee2527e-1eab-4d42-99ff-26d941b77b84", "symbol": "BKY", "name": "Berkeley Energia Limited", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 52.129, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 12.779, "architecture_energy": 9.031, "architecture_maturity": 14.459, "architecture_confidence": 61.253, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.67, "rotation_up": 35.56, "upward_expansion": 29.65, "deceleration": 39.12, "rotation_down": 26.95, "downward_expansion": 22.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.285567, 0.2858, 0.279967, 0.279742 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.288, "trend_reference": 0.284967, "distance_from_trend": 0.010645, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.251004, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.14739, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.71736, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.072464, "excess_performance": -0.196895, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010645, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011676, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.14739, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.175991, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.167174, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10737, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.072464, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.808775, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2326845, "relative_activity": 0.343874, "balance": 2.808775, "dry_up": 0.760948, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069578, "annualized_volatility": 0.361981, "from_high_reference": -0.172414, "from_low_reference": 0.233405 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.284967, "fair_value_reference": 0.251004, "structural_low": 0.2335, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.010714, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 1.32069, "worst_return": -0.51999, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.017073, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.001289, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.833229, "worst_return": -0.521527, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.070796, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.048523, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.480325, "worst_return": -0.545874, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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18.81912, "activity_lines": [ 0.286233, 0.284427, 0.27586, 0.279904 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.276, "volume": 1655262, "typical_volume": 6443942.85, "trend": 0.28545, "fair_value": 0.250274, "relative_strength": -17.894363, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.428538, "energy": 12.721926, "activity_lines": [ 0.282567, 0.284018, 0.275929, 0.279244 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.2895, "volume": 8483966, "typical_volume": 6614119.1, "trend": 0.285467, "fair_value": 0.250495, "relative_strength": -14.844098, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.388597, "energy": 7.129639, "activity_lines": [ 0.283567, 0.285527, 0.277407, 0.279505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.2865, "volume": 8129945, "typical_volume": 6782518.1, "trend": 0.285367, "fair_value": 0.250684, "relative_strength": -16.028431, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.660388, "energy": 4.600024, "activity_lines": [ 0.2839, 0.285636, 0.278607, 0.279572 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.288, "volume": 2326845, "typical_volume": 6766562.25, "trend": 0.284967, "fair_value": 0.251004, "relative_strength": -16.71736, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.779074, "energy": 9.03113, "activity_lines": [ 0.285567, 0.2858, 0.279967, 0.279742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }