{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2ee6fb2e-65cf-4cd5-b283-f2ec123819fc", "symbol": "TVDH", "name": "TVD Holdings Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.898, "architecture_energy": 12.211, "architecture_maturity": 22.772, "architecture_confidence": 69.399, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.76, "rotation_up": 22.24, "upward_expansion": 16.17, "deceleration": 42.8, "rotation_down": 24.81, "downward_expansion": 50.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.05, 0.049091, 0.049952, 0.052237 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.05, "trend_reference": 0.055, "distance_from_trend": -0.090909, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.192244, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.739913, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -38.567842, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.166667, "excess_performance": -0.358992, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.090909, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.199029, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.739913, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040121, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.385678, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088552, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.166667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 21.063747, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3049100, "relative_activity": 0.458155, "balance": 21.063747, "dry_up": 1.070814, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.292308, "annualized_volatility": 0.598454, "from_high_reference": -0.545455, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.055, "fair_value_reference": 0.192244, "structural_low": 0.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.028571, "positive_rate": 0.133333, "directional_follow_through": 0.133333, "median_excess_return": -0.003338, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.495146, "worst_return": -0.117647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.090909, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.088208, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.300971, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.216216, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.150803, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.009709, "worst_return": -0.578947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.405405, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.375152, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.063636, "worst_return": -0.631579, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-04-22", "end": "2022-05-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.106796, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2022-05-20", "end": "2022-06-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.227273, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2022-07-01", "end": "2022-09-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05042, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2022-09-16", "end": "2022-10-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082569, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-10-21", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.627451, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.081081, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.352941, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.157895, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.470588, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.46, "volume": 32681200, "typical_volume": 13557050.0, "trend": 0.587, "fair_value": 1.008842, "relative_strength": -35.848726, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"relative_strength": -41.349293, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.409254, "energy": 14.771795, "activity_lines": [ 0.05, 0.048364, 0.050571, 0.052989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.05, "volume": 2320800, "typical_volume": 6562900.0, "trend": 0.055667, "fair_value": 0.195192, "relative_strength": -39.909516, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.35948, "energy": 13.179076, "activity_lines": [ 0.05, 0.048727, 0.050238, 0.052602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.05, "volume": 3049100, "typical_volume": 6655170.0, "trend": 0.055, "fair_value": 0.192244, "relative_strength": -38.567842, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.897967, "energy": 12.211246, "activity_lines": [ 0.05, 0.049091, 0.049952, 0.052237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }