{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2ee7198b-5a4f-4bc5-a991-532ca9e4ee4b", "symbol": "SOLNA", "name": "Solnaberg Property AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 80.51, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.477, "architecture_energy": 23.031, "architecture_maturity": 39.076, "architecture_confidence": 50.52, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.32, "rotation_up": 39.11, "upward_expansion": 70.38, "deceleration": 65.69, "rotation_down": 20.43, "downward_expansion": 1.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 115.433333, 115.317281, 114.95407, 114.425996 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 116.0, "trend_reference": 113.782046, "distance_from_trend": 0.019493, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 102.342453, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.133449, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.833588, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.03524, "excess_performance": -0.026254, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019493, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008887, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.133449, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037351, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.108336, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017342, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.03524, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.792736, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6243, "relative_activity": 0.353634, "balance": 2.792736, "dry_up": 0.343325, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027643, "annualized_volatility": 0.153457, "from_high_reference": -0.062622, "from_low_reference": 0.082728 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 113.782046, "fair_value_reference": 102.342453, "structural_low": 107.136751, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.003931, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.012781, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.102273, "worst_return": -0.138462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.009819, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.011555, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.105152, "worst_return": -0.28735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.020293, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.081785, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.131122, "worst_return": 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"trend": 114.027324, "fair_value": 100.808891, "relative_strength": -11.097914, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.497851, "energy": 17.40834, "activity_lines": [ 113.52204, 113.931481, 113.797207, 113.677945 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 119.0, "volume": 28604, "typical_volume": 19855.6, "trend": 114.062367, "fair_value": 101.088459, "relative_strength": -8.719714, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.083802, "energy": 30.204788, "activity_lines": [ 115.230029, 114.815478, 114.336219, 113.998763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 115.0, "volume": 18912, "typical_volume": 19483.9, "trend": 114.028529, "fair_value": 101.33843, "relative_strength": -9.440084, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.060797, "energy": 34.827077, "activity_lines": [ 115.404684, 114.872202, 114.47055, 114.059255 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 115.0, "volume": 4686, "typical_volume": 18206.1, "trend": 113.994691, "fair_value": 101.596612, "relative_strength": -8.152455, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.969024, "energy": 38.185262, "activity_lines": [ 115.452617, 114.919835, 114.581479, 114.121931 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 115.5, "volume": 4185, "typical_volume": 17715.15, "trend": 113.945294, "fair_value": 101.855262, "relative_strength": -8.899612, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.540397, "energy": 41.376046, "activity_lines": [ 115.573278, 115.07656, 114.725985, 114.219047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 115.0, "volume": 9130, "typical_volume": 17691.35, "trend": 113.847003, "fair_value": 102.097021, "relative_strength": -10.210653, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.40296, "energy": 20.529634, "activity_lines": [ 115.4, 115.115102, 114.797089, 114.287093 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 116.0, "volume": 6243, "typical_volume": 17653.85, "trend": 113.782046, "fair_value": 102.342453, "relative_strength": -10.833588, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.477393, "energy": 23.030886, "activity_lines": [ 115.433333, 115.317281, 114.95407, 114.425996 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }