{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2eed9f5a-768e-4bb2-b742-62c81bbbb49f", "symbol": "SIMBHALS", "name": "Simbhaoli Sugars Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.001, "architecture_energy": 45.987, "architecture_maturity": 56.608, "architecture_confidence": 67.569, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.96, "rotation_up": 24.69, "upward_expansion": 14.17, "deceleration": 65.88, "rotation_down": 47.17, "downward_expansion": 73.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.904, 6.896, 7.468667, 7.742774 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.07, "trend_reference": 8.130667, "distance_from_trend": -0.130453, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.314423, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.633952, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.289047, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.205618, "excess_performance": -0.161909, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.130453, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118818, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.633952, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104097, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.27289, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107928, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.205618, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.242433, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 83718, "relative_activity": 2.050334, "balance": 1.242433, "dry_up": 1.4707, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07997, "annualized_volatility": 0.526274, "from_high_reference": -0.557849, "from_low_reference": 0.092736 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.130667, "fair_value_reference": 19.314423, "structural_low": 6.47, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.032552, "positive_rate": 0.407407, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": -0.02164, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.34375, "worst_return": -0.215112, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.008339, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027362, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.356962, "worst_return": -0.32814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.055231, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.100712, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.144304, "worst_return": -0.480895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.043982, "energy": 68.927513, "activity_lines": [ 6.924667, 7.085091, 7.772905, 8.032409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.9, "volume": 54183, "typical_volume": 50064.8, "trend": 8.402667, "fair_value": 19.535961, "relative_strength": -29.071967, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.248224, "energy": 59.687107, "activity_lines": [ 6.924667, 6.983818, 7.666762, 7.929957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.67, "volume": 50548, "typical_volume": 46764.65, "trend": 8.238667, "fair_value": 19.426795, "relative_strength": -31.988929, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.329597, "energy": 56.989123, "activity_lines": [ 6.844, 6.884, 7.545619, 7.818172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.07, "volume": 83718, "typical_volume": 40831.4, "trend": 8.130667, "fair_value": 19.314423, "relative_strength": -27.289047, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.001275, "energy": 45.987089, "activity_lines": [ 6.904, 6.896, 7.468667, 7.742774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }