{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2ef073fd-6fa2-4df6-8b44-7c8bb5d5529c", "symbol": "601858", "name": "China Science Publishing & Media Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -9.568, "architecture_energy": 11.007, "architecture_maturity": 46.293, "architecture_confidence": 54.797, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.28, "rotation_up": 30.6, "upward_expansion": 16.06, "deceleration": 43.91, "rotation_down": 26.86, "downward_expansion": 66.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.970142, 19.835195, 21.151319, 21.589588 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 26.32, "trend_reference": 21.791371, "distance_from_trend": 0.207818, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.655176, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.215414, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 27.504133, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.251545, "excess_performance": 0.294749, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.207818, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019098, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.215414, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113994, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.275041, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.138698, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.251545, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.652389, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 150731707, "relative_activity": 2.672845, "balance": 1.652389, "dry_up": 1.627576, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112658, "annualized_volatility": 0.702887, "from_high_reference": -0.159105, "from_low_reference": 0.62375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.791371, "fair_value_reference": 21.655176, "structural_low": 16.209396, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.029712, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.034549, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.127461, "worst_return": -0.0915, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.081839, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.011653, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.074745, "worst_return": -0.127729, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.101254, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.071278, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.069626, "worst_return": -0.134421, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"activity_lines": [ 17.758899, 19.47053, 21.416621, 21.667638 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.129999, "volume": 47216541, "typical_volume": 55416724.35, "trend": 21.450704, "fair_value": 21.765331, "relative_strength": -14.082632, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.053323, "energy": 77.619963, "activity_lines": [ 17.433055, 18.701963, 20.939901, 21.387636 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.780001, "volume": 93734915, "typical_volume": 54833172.4, "trend": 21.519038, "fair_value": 21.676964, "relative_strength": -1.098765, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.37059, "energy": 48.369476, "activity_lines": [ 18.184746, 18.61667, 20.726134, 21.279848 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.32, "volume": 150731707, "typical_volume": 56393737.2, "trend": 21.791371, "fair_value": 21.655176, "relative_strength": 27.504133, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.567671, "energy": 11.006506, "activity_lines": [ 20.970142, 19.835195, 21.151319, 21.589588 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }