{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2ef15edb-9e28-4491-891a-8b1a1da33163", "symbol": "GDEC", "name": "FT VEST U.S. EQUITY MODERATE BUFFER ETF - DECEMBER", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 56.386, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.508, "architecture_energy": 78.428, "architecture_maturity": 41.626, "architecture_confidence": 81.67, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.01, "rotation_up": 65.76, "upward_expansion": 91.43, "deceleration": 48.2, "rotation_down": 24.87, "downward_expansion": 15.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.158233, 39.985915, 39.705842, 39.26773 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 40.5055, "trend_reference": 38.767523, "distance_from_trend": 0.044831, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.800346, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.16394, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.967864, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.063416, "excess_performance": -0.062209, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.044831, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020765, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.16394, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015377, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049679, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001547, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.063416, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.424463, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 165720, "relative_activity": 0.939209, "balance": 3.424463, "dry_up": 0.499894, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009399, "annualized_volatility": 0.066668, "from_high_reference": -0.000604, "from_low_reference": 0.134287 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.767523, "fair_value_reference": 34.800346, "structural_low": 36.355, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.009123, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.004512, "regime_survival": 0.923077, "best_return": 0.052903, "worst_return": -0.033051, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.03002, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.014621, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.046234, "worst_return": -0.003281, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.065546, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.040863, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.080476, "worst_return": 0.050616, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 40.06, "volume": 71061, "typical_volume": 180620.45, "trend": 38.477573, "fair_value": 34.642532, "relative_strength": -4.211969, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.863119, "energy": 77.961438, "activity_lines": [ 39.800667, 39.704305, 39.251167, 38.879177 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.883, "volume": 52950, "typical_volume": 176747.8, "trend": 38.549007, "fair_value": 34.68135, "relative_strength": -3.02402, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.514986, "energy": 76.947912, "activity_lines": [ 39.849667, 39.751224, 39.36099, 38.969849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.82, "volume": 69902, "typical_volume": 175845.9, "trend": 38.611007, "fair_value": 34.719135, "relative_strength": -2.51112, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.415215, "energy": 74.802688, "activity_lines": [ 39.8568, 39.777447, 39.45575, 39.051849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.14, "volume": 64246, "typical_volume": 171725.0, "trend": 38.68834, "fair_value": 34.758703, "relative_strength": -2.667815, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.068095, "energy": 76.875462, "activity_lines": [ 39.969267, 39.853865, 39.57013, 39.150494 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.5055, "volume": 165720, "typical_volume": 176446.35, "trend": 38.767523, "fair_value": 34.800346, "relative_strength": -4.967864, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.508079, "energy": 78.428125, "activity_lines": [ 40.158233, 39.985915, 39.705842, 39.26773 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }