{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "2ef16f41-f0ef-4aa2-a68d-003a44ea2b4d",
    "symbol": "XMME",
    "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Emerging Markets UCITS ETF 1C",
    "exchange": "EBS",
    "country": "CH",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-21",
    "benchmark": "^SSMI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 56.533,
    "architecture_energy": 34.334,
    "architecture_maturity": 42.525,
    "architecture_confidence": 54.998,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 32.17,
        "rotation_up": 42.52,
        "upward_expansion": 70.53,
        "deceleration": 70.21,
        "rotation_down": 25.31,
        "downward_expansion": 8.53
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        74.263334,
        73.999636,
        73.795619,
        72.047226
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 74.980003,
    "trend_reference": 69.635,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.076757,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 54.57368,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.373922,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 4.883908,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.128707,
    "excess_performance": 0.085617,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.076757,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.070973,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.373922,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.006345,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.048839,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.078477,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.128707,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.113855,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 46655,
      "relative_activity": 1.479479,
      "balance": 1.113855,
      "dry_up": 1.602843,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.040011,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.229837,
      "from_high_reference": -0.046541,
      "from_low_reference": 0.386208
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 69.635,
      "fair_value_reference": 54.57368,
      "structural_low": 59.470001,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": 0.005842,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.006488,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.134201,
        "worst_return": -0.068912,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.023576,
        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": 0.024434,
        "regime_survival": 0.285714,
        "best_return": 0.248642,
        "worst_return": -0.026127,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.010083,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.014858,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.249581,
        "worst_return": -0.041118,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.011965,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.004281,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.020182,
        "worst_return": 0.003748,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-10-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.064477,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-11",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.03264,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.030796,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.001513,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.037917,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.1205,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "violet",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.038991,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-01",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.082098,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2026-01-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.074807,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-23",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.047173,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.13453,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "return": 0.031069,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "return": 0.03122,
        "active": true
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        "typical_volume": 57812.15,
        "trend": 63.693303,
        "fair_value": 51.954321,
        "relative_strength": 14.283379,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 71.478367,
        "energy": 83.882266,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 59446.7,
        "trend": 63.604333,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 73.213964,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 58771.35,
        "trend": 64.07,
        "fair_value": 52.313648,
        "relative_strength": 15.743218,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 82.432524,
        "energy": 85.74581,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 55999.3,
        "trend": 64.517666,
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        "relative_strength": 13.731157,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.448349,
        "energy": 72.554649,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 51927.6,
        "trend": 65.020333,
        "fair_value": 52.66586,
        "relative_strength": 13.803367,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 77.458062,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "volume": 4415,
        "typical_volume": 49439.65,
        "trend": 65.691,
        "fair_value": 52.882206,
        "relative_strength": 18.106608,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 88.849822,
        "energy": 91.455155,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 10862,
        "typical_volume": 47265.1,
        "trend": 66.231333,
        "fair_value": 53.077719,
        "relative_strength": 10.435785,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 65.610518,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 41778.2,
        "trend": 66.748333,
        "fair_value": 53.276244,
        "relative_strength": 7.914465,
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        "energy": 75.988843,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 2155,
        "typical_volume": 39560.35,
        "trend": 67.291,
        "fair_value": 53.46977,
        "relative_strength": 8.169723,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.769667,
        "energy": 69.126562,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 71.019997,
        "volume": 6988,
        "typical_volume": 34786.75,
        "trend": 67.681,
        "fair_value": 53.638936,
        "relative_strength": 1.287097,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.118027,
        "energy": 40.619226,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 72.709999,
        "volume": 23702,
        "typical_volume": 31448.85,
        "trend": 68.136333,
        "fair_value": 53.808552,
        "relative_strength": 3.574283,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 39.859237,
        "energy": 27.360679,
        "activity_lines": [
          73.347332,
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          72.718428,
          70.686494
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 71.82,
        "volume": 61194,
        "typical_volume": 32440.35,
        "trend": 68.537333,
        "fair_value": 53.978712,
        "relative_strength": 1.992396,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 31.768814,
        "energy": 24.319809,
        "activity_lines": [
          72.595999,
          73.791454,
          72.86419,
          70.92415
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 73.82,
        "volume": 51225,
        "typical_volume": 32989.8,
        "trend": 68.895333,
        "fair_value": 54.168039,
        "relative_strength": 3.195623,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 32.302715,
        "energy": 25.115887,
        "activity_lines": [
          72.778666,
          73.707636,
          73.154381,
          71.264967
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-14",
        "close": 75.309998,
        "volume": 43107,
        "typical_volume": 30722.9,
        "trend": 69.269666,
        "fair_value": 54.374193,
        "relative_strength": 6.11764,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 49.160753,
        "energy": 27.259201,
        "activity_lines": [
          73.581999,
          73.90709,
          73.525428,
          71.678817
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-21",
        "close": 74.980003,
        "volume": 46655,
        "typical_volume": 31534.75,
        "trend": 69.635,
        "fair_value": 54.57368,
        "relative_strength": 4.883908,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 56.532691,
        "energy": 34.334337,
        "activity_lines": [
          74.263334,
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          73.795619,
          72.047226
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}