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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 72.157, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.427, "architecture_energy": 50.483, "architecture_maturity": 7.596, "architecture_confidence": 71.611, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.69, "rotation_up": 64.32, "upward_expansion": 82.0, "deceleration": 49.6, "rotation_down": 11.6, "downward_expansion": 8.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 202.696667, 200.964546, 196.595858, 196.254044 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 199.25, "trend_reference": 195.353129, "distance_from_trend": 0.019948, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 184.893151, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.077649, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.25428, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.045535, "excess_performance": -0.019104, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019948, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028165, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.077649, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058938, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032543, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015024, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.045535, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.265532, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1730, "relative_activity": 0.794453, "balance": 1.265532, "dry_up": 1.290182, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045802, "annualized_volatility": 0.243394, "from_high_reference": -0.076691, "from_low_reference": 0.195802 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 195.353129, "fair_value_reference": 184.893151, "structural_low": 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14.907849, "activity_lines": [ 193.989999, 191.096685, 192.341075, 192.864379 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 202.800003, "volume": 3353, "typical_volume": 2020.0, "trend": 192.783414, "fair_value": 183.264263, "relative_strength": 3.358151, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.720787, "energy": 36.114139, "activity_lines": [ 197.376667, 193.409266, 193.123556, 193.556715 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 211.800003, "volume": 2273, "typical_volume": 2023.95, "trend": 193.707574, "fair_value": 183.696456, "relative_strength": 8.799613, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.397762, "energy": 66.781785, "activity_lines": [ 202.970001, 197.251918, 194.722967, 194.783591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 209.0, "volume": 4721, "typical_volume": 2135.45, "trend": 194.497464, "fair_value": 184.130185, "relative_strength": 6.11034, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.920409, "energy": 74.467809, "activity_lines": [ 206.166668, 200.07947, 195.996742, 195.7702 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 197.7, "volume": 2514, "typical_volume": 2147.85, "trend": 194.952944, "fair_value": 184.5067, "relative_strength": -1.563193, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.842946, "energy": 62.924224, "activity_lines": [ 204.126667, 200.487831, 196.198682, 195.976815 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 199.25, "volume": 1730, "typical_volume": 2177.6, "trend": 195.353129, "fair_value": 184.893151, "relative_strength": -3.25428, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.426742, "energy": 50.482671, "activity_lines": [ 202.696667, 200.964546, 196.595858, 196.254044 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }