{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2ef2fb6f-64a8-4824-9c00-6531e4441e45", "symbol": "300517", "name": "Haibo Heavy Engineering Science and Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.013, "architecture_energy": 48.874, "architecture_maturity": 34.858, "architecture_confidence": 88.929, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.61, "rotation_up": 17.51, "upward_expansion": 6.86, "deceleration": 55.82, "rotation_down": 58.05, "downward_expansion": 77.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.134667, 9.295273, 10.130338, 10.598612 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.65, "trend_reference": 11.180388, "distance_from_trend": -0.136881, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.461539, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.077574, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.860032, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.184597, "excess_performance": -0.191997, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.136881, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058923, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.077574, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.253123, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1886, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070935, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.184597, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.662768, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27596640, "relative_activity": 1.287571, "balance": 0.662768, "dry_up": 1.213721, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120706, "annualized_volatility": 0.453342, "from_high_reference": -0.310088, "from_low_reference": 0.237179 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.180388, "fair_value_reference": 10.461539, "structural_low": 7.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.038528, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.029995, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.271895, "worst_return": -0.112936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.013719, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.054989, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.088061, "worst_return": -0.13044, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.008229, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.10119, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.246143, "worst_return": -0.430483, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"energy": 76.62307, "activity_lines": [ 9.694667, 10.276765, 10.911672, 11.21604 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.64, "volume": 26805280, "typical_volume": 21241958.45, "trend": 11.389078, "fair_value": 10.564063, "relative_strength": -26.326061, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.005928, "energy": 80.56683, "activity_lines": [ 9.333333, 9.875639, 10.660064, 11.034007 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.47, "volume": 30111820, "typical_volume": 21385788.8, "trend": 11.29511, "fair_value": 10.530021, "relative_strength": -27.358689, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.620543, "energy": 73.872409, "activity_lines": [ 9.006, 9.515577, 10.410879, 10.84568 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.04, "volume": 19541440, "typical_volume": 21278429.45, "trend": 11.224441, "fair_value": 10.496995, "relative_strength": -20.679464, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.174686, "energy": 55.093336, "activity_lines": [ 8.953333, 9.315636, 10.234033, 10.700189 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.65, "volume": 27596640, "typical_volume": 21433093.45, "trend": 11.180388, "fair_value": 10.461539, "relative_strength": -18.860032, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.013215, "energy": 48.873635, "activity_lines": [ 9.134667, 9.295273, 10.130338, 10.598612 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }