{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2ef575c0-d68c-4270-98fe-e41be7a8fb01", "symbol": "HOLNN", "name": "Holcim AG", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -32.734, "architecture_energy": 73.825, "architecture_maturity": 29.479, "architecture_confidence": 64.381, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.78, "rotation_up": 14.0, "upward_expansion": 37.24, "deceleration": 49.73, "rotation_down": 77.11, "downward_expansion": 57.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 1581.955982, 1619.324343, 1636.70112, 1623.283328 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1581.719971, "trend_reference": 1591.254154, "distance_from_trend": -0.005992, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1377.796397, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.148007, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 12.930599, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.110033, "excess_performance": -0.055366, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005992, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132155, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.148007, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076084, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.129306, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026649, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.110033, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.74426, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.74426, "dry_up": 1.319439, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01042, "annualized_volatility": 0.197598, "from_high_reference": -0.110033, "from_low_reference": 0.446936 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1591.254154, "fair_value_reference": 1377.796397, "structural_low": 1517.158447, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.030517, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.012638, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.143148, "worst_return": -0.494282, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.073953, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.01298, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.132762, "worst_return": -0.494282, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.456883, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.558983, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.456883, "worst_return": -0.456883, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.146147, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.394045, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.146147, "worst_return": -0.146147, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.143148, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061876, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001435, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.146359, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050799, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035511, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-24", 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"relative_strength": 12.930599, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.734314, "energy": 73.824858, "activity_lines": [ 1581.955982, 1619.324343, 1636.70112, 1623.283328 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }